User:Danielravennest/papers/Illusion of Scarcity

Building a Better Future

The Illusion of Scarcity and Self-Improving Systems

Dani Eder

The Seed Factory Project,

6485 Rivertown Rd, Fairburn, GA 30213

email: danielravennest@gmail.com

November 2024

 Abstract Most people would like a better future for themselves, their family and friends, their community, and the world. Over the long span of history our lives have generally improved in material ways such as better food security and shelter, and also in social ways such as civil rights. But recently some people have lost hope in further improvement. They think the world is too full, so each of us has to settle for less. They think resources are getting used up, and the environment will keep getting degraded, so what is left for each will be worse.

 But our work shows there is hope for a better future. This article is a summary of the facts and ideas that make us hopeful. A longer report on building better worlds goes into more depth, and a two volume set of Wikibooks covers all that we have learned so far. Our project is open source, but it isn't finished. It is more like software that goes through new versions over time. If you want to help you are invited to participate on Wikibooks, on other platforms, or by using the contact information above. Together we can give people hope and build a better future.

What is a Better Future and How Can We Get There?

 

 Scarcity - In economics, Scarcity refers to the limited amount of human and non-human resources available to satisfy our needs and wants. Example resources are time to do work (labor) and agricultural land for food. Scarcity limits what we can do, and is therefore an obstacle in building a better future. By contrast, in a Post-Scarcity Economy most needs and wants can be provided in abundance with minimal labor. What you need to survive, like food and shelter, and many desired goods and services, would be widely available at low cost.

 In such an economy people are mostly free to do what they want, rather than having to work hard in order to live. Note that scarcity can't be entirely eliminated. Some items like waterfront property, gold, or original artworks will always be limited. We don't know if human work can be entirely eliminated by using smart tools (automation, robotics, software and artificial intelligence). But we think it can be reduced to hobby-level and managed by people who enjoy it.

 Some wealthy and retired people today can meet their needs and many wants without having to work. But society as a whole isn't there yet. Plenty of people struggle to get the basics even when working as hard as they can. But the belief that things can't get better or will get worse is an illusion based on limited knowledge and experience. Once you know what is possible, and how to do it, you can take action, make changes, and build a better life.

 The key ideas are:

• Resources and energy are abundant on Earth and in space.

• With enough knowledge and tools they can be used to build a better life.

• With planning this can be sustainable, and avoid unwanted side effects.

• Cooperation makes it affordable, and self-improvement makes it scalable.

• Smart tools can do most of the work.

• Projects like the one we started can make it happen.

1. Resources and Energy

 

 Many people feel our current system is taking more than Earth can give, and the future will therefore be worse. There are definitely problems that need solving, both now and in coming decades. But the world's resources are not "running out" in any sense. The waste materials from building and running civilization still exist. They are in different places than they started, like the air and landfills, and in less useful forms, but the original atoms are still there. Sustainable energy sources like solar, wind, water, and geothermal will last for many millions of years. With those we can recover waste materials and supply new ones as needed.

 Materials - Let's take as an example 4000 square meters (about 1 acre) of average farmland in the continental US. Soil is less dense than the rock below, but a combined average is about 2.5 tons per cubic meter (/m³) in the first 10 meters (33 feet) down. This is 4000 x 10 x 2.5 = 100,000 tons of material. This depth can be reached with common construction equipment. US Farmland averaged $3,750 in 2022 for 4000 m². So the material cost works out to $0.0375/ton (3.75 cents). So basic raw materials can be very cheap. What the ground is made of varies from place to place, but you can always use it for something when you know how.

 Energy - The average US Solar Resource is equivalent to 4.75 hours/day of full sunlight. Solar energy hardware costs about $0.60/Watt. Modern solar panels can be warranted for 40 years to produce 93% of rated power on average. Panel output slowly decreases with time, but they will make 64.5 kWh per Watt of capacity over the 40 years. The lifetime cost is then about $0.01/kWh, about one tenth of typical US household electric rates. So energy can also be very cheap.

 Embodied Energy is the total energy used to make a product, from mine to final delivery. It varies a lot by product, but a typical number is 30 MJ/kg (8 1/3 kWh/kg). In particular, making and operating a new solar power system over its life consumes about 5% of the energy it produces. Second generation solar systems from recycled materials need less energy to make. Extracting new metals for them like aluminum, silicon, and iron use a lot more energy than recycling them. So solar is sustainable for the long term, making much more energy than it uses.

 Manufacturing - You can't entirely fill an area with solar panels. Some space is needed for maintenance access. Tilting panels to follow the Sun increases output, but rows are spaced apart to avoid shading each other. Assume our example land is 50% filled with high efficiency (22%) panels. 2000 m² of panels have an installed capacity of 440 kW, making 7000 MJ/day on average. This can make 233 kg/day of typical products, or 85 tons/year. This is about half an average US house and its contents every year. So the land is pretty productive if the energy is used for manufacturing.

Note that the land under and between panels doesn't have to be wasted if they are on rooftops and parking lots, or combined with farming (Agrisolar). Even if the land isn't shared, the average daily power level after accounting for night and weather is 81kW, or 50 square km for 1 GW. The world's total energy consumption is 20,000 GW, so 1 million square km, or 0.67% of the world's land area could supply all the world's energy.

 The first 10 meters with 100,000 tons of material would last 1175 years at the rate of 85 tons/year. You don't want to dig everywhere, but surface mines have gone down 1200 meters, underground mines over 4000, and drilling 12,000. There is no danger of running out of materials for a very long time. Well-built homes and furniture can last more than 100 years. Other types of construction and manufactured goods can last a long time too. If designed properly, their materials can be efficiently recycled. So our lives can be sustainable and non-polluting if we choose.

 There are other energy sustainable energy sources besides the solar panels, and you can do similar calculations for them. If the land is sunny enough, you can build solar furnaces. These are higher efficiency and potentially less expensive. Some areas have useful amounts of wind, geothermal, and other renewable sources. Wind power in particular is now being built over water, and on land uses about 1% of the land area for maintenance and delivering power. The rest is unused open land or shared with agriculture.

 Space Resources - There is about 7 times more sunlight in the Earth's neighborhood ace than the average on the ground. Night, weather, and losses going through the atmosphere account for the difference. This is why 99% of spacecraft run on solar power. The other 1% use nuclear power. Without weather and gravity, solar arrays need about 10 times less materials in space. So they produce about 70 times more energy per weight. Their output can go down faster due to higher radiation levels, but their lifetime output is still much higher.

 The total output of the Sun is 548 million times what reaches the Earth, and it will last for billions of years. So in practical terms it is unlimited. In addition to energy, there are also vast amounts of physical working area and raw materials in space that can be used without disturbing the Earth. Using the resources of space to meet our needs would be a permanent solution to problems on Earth.

 Is that possible? The energy to reach space is about the same as the embodied energy of average products on Earth. So in principle it doesn't have to cost a lot to get there. The hardware cost of single-use rockets made it very expensive to get to space in the past. That severely limited the things we could afford to do there. Rockets that can fly many times are lowering cost, but only turn about 13% of fuel energy into delivered cargo weight. More efficient technologies exist and will improve efficiency and cost in the future. Using materials already in space means less has to be sent from Earth, further reducing transportation cost. Bootstrapping with self-improving systems (described below) means less has to be launched to get started. So in the long-term, using the resources of space might end up cheaper than on Earth. But a lot of work is needed to prove it would work and build out the capacity to use them.

2. Knowledge and Tools

 

 Knowledge - You need more than energy and materials to make things. You also have to know how to make them, and have the equipment to make them with. Recorded knowledge, such as books and instructional videos, are widely available today. Libraries and used books are free or low cost. Most people today have access to online information, either personally or through community sources like libraries.

 Active knowledge in the form of skills and experience can be learned from recorded sources, then using that information on projects. Practice projects to build skills can be both useful and low cost. Other low-cost ways to learn include working on volunteer projects, and working with more experienced people that need some help. The latter can even a source of income. So gaining all kinds of knowledge is affordable.

 Tools - Anything we use to make, modify, improve, or maintain other things in our life or ourselves is a tool. That includes items like computers and smartphones and kitchen equipment. If you have some money, you can accumulate basic tools by buying them. Used ones can often be found for less, borrowed, or accessed from community sources. Specialized tools and equipment are more expensive, but can be rented as needed, or their cost split among a group. So enough tools to get started are in reach for most people.

 Modern civilization proves that tools can be used to make more and better tools. All the tools in existence can be traced back to simple ones that were made by hand from local materials. Today we don't have to start with rocks and sticks. A starter set of the right tools and machines, plus personal labor and automation, can be used to build more and better ones to whatever level is needed.

 Our project has been working on the details of how to do this, and there are links below to our work. But you can figure out your own path by starting with what you want in the end, like a house. Then work backwards to what equipment is needed to build it, and which of that equipment you can make. For example, sawhorses are common construction equipment. You can buy them, but you can also make them for less from lumber and common fasteners.

3. Side Effects and Sustainability

 

 The world has problems like too much CO₂ raising temperatures, deforestation, and loss of biodiversity. They are problems because we didn't understand or care about the side effects of what we were doing. This can be avoided in the future with a "system life-cycle" approach. Our small piece of land with solar panels is an example system.

 You consider everything that enters and leaves the system over its entire life. That would include the reflected light and radiated heat that isn't converted to electricity, the rain that falls on the panels and where it ends up later, etc. Anything that affects the the world outside the system has to be accounted for. Then you plan for and design the system to minimize or eliminate unwanted side effects, make it recyclable, and find uses for by-products like rain runoff.

 Our example system produces more energy during its life than is used to build and operate it. If replacement parts and installation don't have unwanted side effects, the effects won't accumulate over time. Long-term sustainability also requires everything going into the system is not in short supply or can be recycled. The Sun will last longer than the Earth remains livable, so the primary energy source is not limited in any practical sense.

 The main materials in a solar power system are steel (support frames), aluminum and glass (panel frames), sometimes plastic (panel backs and wire insulation), silicon (the cells themselves), and copper (connecting wires). None of these are rare, and all of them can be recycled or made new from ores. The land itself doesn't wear out as long as erosion is controlled. Thinking this way about sources and recycling, i.e. system inputs and outputs, can be applied to all kinds of projects, and their design made more sustainable.

4. Cooperation and Self-Improvement

 

 It is hard for one person to be completely self-sufficient. It takes a lot of knowledge, experience, equipment, and access to various resources to provide a modern quality of life. People have always specialized and cooperated to live better than they could on their own. Businesses bring people and equipment together for work, but often ignore improving their staff. They also extract profits from the work, which then goes to outside owners.

 Groups like associations, cooperatives, and networks can do better. Members can focus on improving themselves and each other by study, practice, and teaching. They can keep profits within the group and build up self-ownership. Working for a conventional business may be needed to get started, but working with others on the side can add income, lower costs, and lead to independence. This is especially useful for the under- or unemployed with variable or precarious jobs and few assets. When there isn't enough regular work, they can do more individual or group projects to support themselves.

 Society is not static. Knowledge and tools have accumulated and improved, both at the individual level and across civilization. Hammers and saws are not the only kinds of tools. So are computers, buildings, and brokerage accounts if you know how to use them. Anything which can be used to make life better can become a tool in the right hands. This is especially true when used to improve your set of tools.

 Intentionally following the self-improvement path, both of yourself and in using what you already have to build more and better, leads to exponential growth. Self-growth and making copies is how an acorn grows exponentially to becomes an oak tree, which in turn can become a forest. But people can do more than just make copies of things - they can learn and change what they do for the better.

5. Smart Tools and Work

 

 Smart tools are those that use automation, robotics, software, and artificial intelligence (AI) to some degree. They have less or no need for people to operate and direct them. A coming problem is smart tools replacing more jobs than they create. For example, self-checkout scanners have already replaced some cashiers. Warehouse robots and self-driving vehicles are starting to replace physical movement of goods.

 The problem for our capitalist system is most people are working a job to pay for things they need and want, but don't or can't make themselves. Without jobs they can't pay for those things. The places they buy from then lose them as customers. Governments lose income and sales taxes from them, so public services and infrastructure also decay. It becomes a systemic problem, not just for the people who don't have jobs.

 A way around this problem is for individuals and private groups to own and leverage the smart tools for themselves. The machines work for them, and deliver their products directly to the owners, without needing a job to pay for them. In the long run, most work can be replaced this way, and the remainder done by people who enjoy it, rather than people who have to work to survive.

 Smart tools have parts like motors and electronics, which are already low cost. Most of us already own multiple devices that have them. Smart tools should not be too expensive to make. Like any other tools, smart ones can be mostly self-made given the right knowledge and starter equipment. Once a private group of owners has the equivalent of an automated machine shop, they can then make as many smart tools as they need at low cost. A life where most work becomes optional and machines do the most of it for us should then be possible. The basic path to reach it is groups of people starting with simple tools and projects, and using them to build up to more advanced and smarter ones.

6. Our Project

 

 My background is space systems engineering, which is popularly (but incorrectly) called "rocket science". Space projects were historically expensive because of the high cost of launching from Earth. One way to lower the cost is using materials and energy already in space. Most spacecraft use solar energy, but we haven't yet started using off-planet materials. That requires mining and production equipment, and launching all of it into space is itself a cost.

 Around 1980 the idea of an automated Starter Set to make more equipment for itself was developed, but space technology of the time was not up to the task. This was called a "Seed Factory" by analogy to plant seeds as the starter set from which plants grow. Launching a starter set instead of a complete factory would lower space project costs.

 In 2013 I realized several things. First, the laws of nature are the same everywhere. If seed factories could work in space, they would also work on Earth. Second, making them work here is easier. The environment is less difficult, and we have more people and existing tools already here to get started with. Third, the needs on Earth are much larger and more urgent. I'm still interested in space projects, but those can wait until seed factories are proven on Earth.

 I started the Seed Factory Project to develop and prove the ideas for Earth first. Our long-term goal is making a sustainable post-scarcity society possible. Our books and other works are aimed at showing how to get there. The project is open-source, so anyone can contribute to it and use the results. We are using Wikibooks and other online sites to share information, and the usual methods to communicate.

 We have built a reference library of "how to" and technical books and articles. This is to help supply knowledge and instructions for projects. The collection also also has a wide range of material on other subjects for general education and self-improvement. There are many other sources of books and tutorials, but this one is organized by subject and portable. Some of the library is copyrighted material. We can't share that freely, but we can share a collection index, and project members can borrow from it when needed.

 Beyond building a knowledge base, we purchased a starter property near Atlanta, and have been accumulating tools and setting up a workshop. The purpose is demonstrate our ideas actually work in practice and learn by doing. We have also started working with other groups and individuals with similar goals.

7. To Learn More

 

 Building Better Worlds in the 21st Century is a 72 page length report that lays out problems with current national space programs, and outlines a new program concept of developing Earth first, then moving out into space. It is based on the idea of self-improving systems introduced in this paper, and which are more fully documented in the books and other works of our project.

 "Better Worlds" is a two volume set of works-in-progress describing a viewpoint and technical approach to building a better life for ourselves, our community, and the world. Volume I - Seed Factories and Self-Improving Systems covers the basic ideas and design process. It then presents a progressive series of projects on Earth using these methods. Volume II: Space Systems Engineering covers the very different environments and resources beyond Earth, how to get there, and technologies for working in space. It continues the series of projects as far as our knowledge allows.

[Add more reference links to works in progress and links to works outside our project]