Interesting social sciences/Demography

From Wikibooks, open books for an open world
Jump to navigation Jump to search


Demography is a science about the number, structure and change of the population. The population of Russia was reduced by catastrophic rates in recent years . Because of it schools, kindergartens and day nursery. began to close. Most of people blames for it an economic crisis, but the example of the western countries shows that economic prosperity leads to increase in birth rate not always . Growth rates of the population are one of the most drama indicators:

1 million years ago the population of the whole world made only about 125000 people, 300000 years ago – 1 million people, by Christmas – 285 million people, in 1930 – 2 billion people, in 1960 – 3 billion people, in June, 2018 - 7.6 billion people

Main reasons of a population explosion: The population explosion began in Europe in 19 century. There were high levels of birth rate and mortality in the Middle Ages in Europe, children were born much, but they were not able to be treated and the big share of children died of epidemics and hunger therefore increase in population was minimumin the Middle Ages in Europe. For example, Peter the Great had 14 children from two wives

out of whom only 3 had survived. The level of birth rate remained high, but medical care improved and the welfare increased during Modern times . It became the reason of a population explosion during industrialization (Modern times).

The reasons of decrease in birth rate in the modern developed countries: The birth rate and mortality in Russia, Europe and North America decreased in 20 century therefore increase in population became minimum again, the population of some countries even began to be reduced. It is especially dangerous against the background of a population explosion in the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America. Such demographic situation leads inevitably to migration or even to invasion of the population from Asia, Africa and Latin America to Europe, North America and Russia. Islamic global terrorism became the first harbinger of such invasion.

There are forecasts about a possibility of World War III of the West against the Islamic states. Russia is on border of a population explosion, there are countries with high growth rates of the population on the southern borders of Russia – China and the Islamic countries. China tries to fight against the excessive growth of the population with help of taxes on the second child that led to appearance of "underground", unregistered children. The population explosion was in 19 century - the beginning of 20 Russia But the increase in population received as a result of this explosion was destroyed during the awful historical cataclysms in 20 century. There were demographic problems in the Soviet Union in the late fifties the 20th century which became consequences of World War II as during war very few children were born, and many men died during war. Many Russian people migrate from neighboring countries to Russia. an example of migration was Migration Periodin the ancient time – Huns, Avars, Gotts, Vandals, Francs, Angles,,Saxons, Lombards, Slavs in 4-7 centuries AD. There was a migration of Arabs, Normans, Proto-Bulgarians,Magyars in 7-9 centuries AD. Migration from Europe to the USA differed in special intensity at 19-20 centuries.

Other reasons of decrease and increase in birth rate in the global world[edit]

It is born by boys more, than girls, but men die at earlier age in comparison with women. The small number of teenagers results in the shortage of work force. City dwellers have less children, than villagers as many children mean many working hands in subsidiary farm for villagers. Highly educated women have few children as they are forced to spend time first of all for education and career during the genital period of life. Parents make calculation of possible costs and the income before making the decision to to give birth to the child, Parents oppose obtaining high education level by children in big family. Many children dies aged up to 1 year as the immunity to diseases is developed. in insufficient degree at this children. Sanitary conditions (quality of drinking water and so on), quality of medical care, quality of food influence on death rate.

Population of Russia[edit]

There were 146,880,432 permanent residents in Russia for January 1, 2018, Russia takes the ninth place in the world on population on this indicator after China, India, USA, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Nigeria and Bangladesh.

Urban population — 80.9% (2018). In 2013 The first natural increase of the population was observed for the first time since 1991 in Russia. Demographic crisis took place in 1991-2013 in Russia.

The total fertility rate has made 1.777 in Russia in 2015. This coefficient means average quantity of births of children at 1 woman for all her life in hypothetical generation. The total fertility rate was reduced since 4.95 births by the woman in the first half of the 1960th years up to 2,5648 in 2005−2010 in the world. The total fertility rate decreased to 1.57 in the developed countries by the end of the 20th century that becomes covered by immigration to these countries from less developed countries. The highest total fertility rate in the world is in Nigeria — 7.03 (for 2015). The lowest total fertility rate is in Singapore — 0.81 (for 2015).

Russians make about 81% of the total number of the population. This share remained stable within the last several decades, despite official excess of mortality over birth rate on 250-750 thousand men in a year. Russians are settled on the territory of the country unevenly: in some regions, such as Chechnya, Russians make less than 2% of the population, and Russians make in Ingushetia 0.8% of the population of the republic. Also six other ethnic groups numbering more than 1 million are allocated — Tatars (3.9%), Ukrainians (1.4%), Bashkirs (1.1%), Chuvashs (1%), Chechens (1%) and Armenians (0.9%) . The share "traditionally Muslim" the people makes about 10% in the population of Russia.

Russia was included into ten the states with the lowest ratio of number of people of working-age and pensioners. 2.4 busy citizens are the share of 1 pensioner in the Russian Federation. this ratio is equal 3.5 in China, this ratio is equal 4.4 in the USA. Increase in a share of pensioners as a part of the population of Russia and growth of average life expectancy forced the leadership of Russia to undertake in 2018 pension reform according to which the retirement age for men will be gradually increased from 60 to 65 years, and retirement age for women will be gradually increased for - from 55 to 60 years.

Life expectancy of the Russian men is the shortest among the population of Europe and Central Asia: Russian men live on average up to 62.8 years only. The general (among men and women) average life expectancy in Russia reached 71.87 years in 2016. At the same time the Israelis who won first place on life expectancy of men live on average 80.1 years, the British — 78.4 years, and Spaniards — 78.8 years.

According to some calculations, the economic crisis which began at the end of 2014 in Russia can lead to a new wave of growth of mortality in the Russian Federation.

The official forecast of Rosstat till 2036 assumes change of population of the country in range from 138,1 million to 153,2 million people.