User:Dan Polansky/COVID-19

What follows is to supplement other Wikimedia sources on the current COVID-19 pandemic. Another page is Wikiversity:COVID-19/Dan Polansky.

Featured sections: #Deaths per capita, #Deaths in context.

Extent of spread

Total confirmed deaths per capita worldwide

Total confirmed cases per capita worldwide

Total confirmed cases per capita in Europe

Total deaths per capita in Europe

Total confirmed cases per million inhabitans in Czechia

Links:

• Coronavirus maps and charts: A visual guide to the outbreak, bbc.com
• Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports, who.int
• Coronavirus Update (Live), worldometers.info - section "Confirmed Cases and Deaths by Country, Territory, or Conveyance", which includes green rows for recovered countries
• W:2019–20 coronavirus outbreak by country and territory, wikipedia.org
• W:2020 coronavirus outbreak in Europe, wikipedia.org

Flatten the curve

Discussion:

• A: Containment is probably impossible. We would be better off without all the restrictive measures that cause economic harm and psychological harm.
• B: Even if containment is impossible (an if), significant delay of spread is very much possible and gains us time to develop a vaccine and faster testing, expand capacity in hospitals, ramp up manufacturing of medical aids and to better prepare for more extensive spread in other ways. The containment measures are the same as spread delay measures.
• C: Failure to delay infections and flatten the curve of infections is very likely to increase the death rate, in part by failure of the overflooded healthcare facilities to provide the intensive care required, e.g. breathing machines. The difference can be observed by comparing the nominal death rates of Italy and South Korea.
• D: We have to distinguish between regions with low quantities of healthcare capacities and regions with high quantities. We have to look at the number of ICU beds per 100 000 inhabitans and the number of ventilators per 100 000 inhabitants; these vary vastly between regions. Furthermore, we have to reckon with different levels of air pollution and the associated susceptibility to lung diseases. And we must not confuse the exponential growth of confirmed cases due to exponential growth of tests with the exponential growth of real cases. Extrapolating from one region to another without making due considerations of these factors leads to gross misestimates.

Quotes:

• “The people in our lives who are most at risk — seniors and those with underlying health conditions — are depending on all of us to make the right choice,” Newson said.

Links:

• Coronavirus: South Korea's 'trace, test and treat' approach, bbc.com
• Flattening the Coronavirus Curve, Mar 11, nytimes.com - has a great graphic
• Coronavirus: Some scientists say UK virus strategy is 'risking lives', Mar 14, bbc.com
• Britain goes it alone over coronavirus. We can only hope the gamble pays off, Mar 15, theguardian.com
• Community Mitigation Guidelines to Prevent Pandemic Influenza — United States, 2017, April 21, 2017,cdc.gov - search for "FIGURE 1. Goals of community mitigation for pandemic influenza"

Refs:

Containment

Containment:

• Some countries succeeded in containment so far..
• High portion of experts says 60-70 procent of population becomes infected as long as there is no immunity against the virus, vaccination, and cure, says Merkel.

Refs:

Death rate

Death rate AKA case fatality rate:

• The case fatality rate (CFR) is reported to be estimated at about 2%, that is, the statistical tendency is that of 100 infected persons, 2 die, but calculating the figure is fraught with problems.
• "For comparison, the case fatality rate with seasonal flu in the United States is less than 0.1% (1 death per every 1,000 cases)."
• The rate of deaths to number of cases is about 3.4% globally as of Mar 06.
• Breakdown: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths, worldometers.info
• Pitfalls:
  • The reported case counts are probably an order-of-magnitude wrong as an indication of real cases for most countries, or even more..
  • The case counts, even if they were accurate, are counts of cases yet to develop while the death count is part of the closed cases; therefore, one would have to take the current death count and past case count. This pitfall goes in the other direction than the first pitfall.
  • The death rate depends on whether overload of healthcare system takes place, and therefore, a globally calculated death rate is too high for unoverloaded countries/regions and too low for overloaded countries/regions.
  • Deaths by the covid (caused by covid) would properly need to be distinguished from deaths with covid (covid-positive deaths with little or no covid contribution), and that seems often not done.

Links:

• The Coronavirus’s Rampage Through a Suburban Nursing Home, Mar 21, nytimes.com

Refs:

War comparison

Comparing COVID-19 to war:

• In World War II, total USSR sufferred 13.7% losses, in terms of per capita.[1]
• In World War II, the world sufferred about 3% losses.[2]
• In World War II, Czechoslovakia suffered 2.33% to 2.43% losses.[3]
• Compare that to 5% death rate that can arise in COVID-19 managed via overflooded healthcare system; if 50% of population gets infected, you get 2.5% losses across the whole population.

Discussion:

• A: Where do you have that 5% death rate from? You cannot trust the raw nominal CFR and you cannot trust the preliminary studies on CFR. The above is very tentative.
• B: What about other countries? What were the U.S. losses and the Polish losses in WWII?
• C: Various countries suffer 1% deaths in a year, per W:List of sovereign states and dependent territories by mortality rate; that is, 1 in 100 persons dies in a year. For instance, in the U.S. there were 8.15 deaths per 1000 people per year in 2017, per the same source.

Spread rate

Spread rate AKA transmission rate:

• The Ro is 1.5 - 3.5; it is the mean count of people that will be infected by a single infected person.
• "The Ro for the common flu is 1.3 [...]"

The growth curve of the current COVID-19 epidemic:

• The curve showing the number of active cases starts exponential, b^d, where b is a base and d is the number of days elapsed. What limits the exponential growth is the increasing immunization of past cases and running out of population to infect further. What further limits the exponential growth are containment interventions.
• The curve starting exponential can be verified by showing the time development on a logarithmic y-axis (e.g. for Italy, worldometers.info, click on "logarithmic") and seeing a straight line; any straight-line portion of such a graph that is not horizontal shows exponential growth with a fixed base, where different slopes of straight-line portions correspond to different base of the exponential growth.
• Since the rate of change of an exponential function is again an exponential function (with the same base, but, in general, multiplied by a different constant factor), also the curve showing daily increases rather than daily totals is going to be exponential. Furthermore, for a death rate not changing in time, the daily deaths are going to be exponential as well; for increasing death rate, even worse.
• If b is 1.2 and we follow 90 days, we get the following development of case totals, rounded to integers:
  • 1st 30 days: 1; 1; 1; 2; 2; 2; 3; 4; 5; 6; 7; 8; 10; 12; 15; 18; 22; 26; 31; 38; 46; 55; 66; 79; 95; 114; 137; 164; 197; 237
  • 2nd 30 days: 284; 341; 410; 492; 590; 708; 850; 1,020; 1,224; 1,469; 1,763; 2,116; 2,539; 3,047; 3,657; 4,388; 5,266; 6,319; 7,583; 9,100; 10,920; 13,104; 15,725; 18,870; 22,644; 27,173; 32,608; 39,130; 46,956; 56,347
  • 3rd 30 days: 67,617; 81,140; 97,368; 116,842; 140,210; 168,252; 201,903; 242,283; 290,740; 348,888; 418,666; 502,400; 602,880; 723,456; 868,147; 1,041,776; 1,250,132; 1,500,158; 1,800,190; 2,160,228; 2,592,274; 3,110,728; 3,732,874; 4,479,449; 5,375,339; 6,450,407; 7,740,489; 9,288,586; 11,146,304; 13,375,565.
  • That is, we end up with 13 million infected in 90 days.
• The day on which the 1st case is confirmed in a region is the day on which to take drastic measures to contain the spread: the 1st confirmed case indicates very likely multiple real cases, and these are already too many to contain completely.

  Late note: Wrong. Drastic measures are not necessarily the best option; one has to weigh their consequences in terms of health and lost lives, and in terms of impact of the economic consequences on the quality of life of the population at large in the years to come.

• Late objection: The b of 1.2 is realistic for confirmed cases but not necessarily for true cases since we need to account for exponential growth of tests. Once the exponential growth of tests slows down, the growth of confirmed cases slows down as well.
• Late objection 2: It is dangerous to present the lay reader with an example of an unlimited exponential growth, implying that it can last 90 days. The limitations were stated in the notes above, but that is not good enough. The above presentation was a mistaken idea.

Refs:

Links:

• W:de:COVID-19-Pandemie, de.wikipedia.org - great bar charts near the top showing development of counts in time

Means of spread

• Thought to be primarily via droplets caughed out or sneezed out.
• Spread via surfaces is also considered.

Refs:

Pandemic potential

Pandemic potential:

• Declared to be a pandemic by WHO.
• OLD: Some authorities/experts indicate there is a pandemic potential, other authorities/experts there is already a pandemic.

Refs:

Test count

Count of tests performed per worldometers.info, Mar 9, top 5 from available data:

• South Korea: 210,144 = 4,099 per million people
• Italy: 60,761 = 1,005 per million people
• UK: 26,261 = 387 per million people
• Hong Kong: 16,000 = 2,134 per million people
• France: 11,895 = 182 per million people

Czechia:

• Czechia, Mar 12: 1816 = 170 per million people

Refs:

Test ease

Ease with which citizens can get tested:

• South Korea makes it super easy for people to get tested..

Refs:

Test coverage

Test coverage and the relationship between the official case count and real case count:

• In many countries, there are huge discrepancies between reported cases and true cases..
• High test coverage may help combat the virus by keeing in check asymptomatic cases.

Refs:

Links:

• Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), ourworldindata.org - search for "Current COVID-19 test coverage estimates"

Confirmed cases per capita

Top 100 confirmed cases per million people (cumulative, active or not), calculated from W:List of countries and dependencies by population and W:Template:2019–20 coronavirus pandemic data on 2020-09-20 17:34 UTC:

Qatar           44876
Bahrain         39248
Aruba           30818
Maldives        24972
Panama          24681
Peru            23382
Chile           22934
Kuwait          22272
San Marino      21498
Brazil          21350
United States   20778
Oman            20263
Israel          19349
Andorra         18544
Moldova         17647
Armenia         15751
Turks and Caicos Islands 15551
Colombia        15055
Vatican City    14545
Sint Maarten    14379
Argentina       13727
Spain           13522
Costa Rica      12465
Montenegro      12065
U.S. Virgin Islands 11780
Guam            11676
Luxembourg      11633
Bolivia         11215
South Africa    11063
Gibraltar       10388
Dominican Republic 10314
Singapore       10086
Saudi Arabia    9622
Cape Verde      9232
Sweden          8518
United Arab Emirates 8517
Belgium         8496
Kosovo          8326
Bahamas         8158
Faroe Islands   8141
Belarus         8043
Suriname        8022
North Macedonia 7974
Iraq            7860
Honduras        7646
Bosnia and Herzegovina 7588
Russia          7518
Ecuador         7063
Kyrgyzstan      6863
Palestine       6634
Ireland         6616
Portugal        6606
France          6588
Iceland         6291
United Kingdom  5902
Romania         5838
Puerto Rico     5715
Kazakhstan      5704
Switzerland     5661
Mexico          5431
Netherlands     5142
Malta           5118
Guatemala       5051
Iran            5037
Italy           4934
Djibouti        4867
Serbia          4750
Eswatini        4748
Paraguay        4552
Monaco          4488
Czech Republic  4419
Albania         4351
French Polynesia 4342
Sao Tome and Principe 4318
Austria         4272
Ukraine         4208
Lebanon         4145
Namibia         4143
El Salvador     4072
Isle of Man     4068
Falkland Islands 4065
Guernsey        4014
Libya           3963
India           3949
Gabon           3887
Azerbaijan      3867
Denmark         3750
Canada          3739
Croatia         3677
Belize          3664
Jersey          3645
Turkey          3642
Equatorial Guinea 3436
Germany         3261
Cayman Islands  2975
Liechtenstein   2890
Trinidad and Tobago 2824
Bermuda         2778
Morocco         2771
Guyana          2754

Disclaimer: The script doing the calculation, at W:User talk:Dan Polansky, is not peer reviewed. One source of error may be that a country or region is skipped altogether during the data extraction.

Data quality: The confirmed cases are very likely to have hugely varying relation to actual cases, depending on test coverage.

Deaths per capita

Top 100 covid-positive (maybe covid-caused in some countries) deaths per million inhabitants, calculated from W:List of countries and dependencies by population and W:Template:2019–20 coronavirus pandemic data on 2020-09-20 17:34 UTC:

San Marino      1248
Peru            961
Belgium         862
Andorra         683
Bolivia         652
Spain           644
Brazil          644
Chile           631
Ecuador         628
United Kingdom  625
United States   613
Italy           594
Mexico          573
Sweden          566
Panama          525
Sint Maarten    492
Colombia        477
France          466
Moldova         456
Ireland         360
Netherlands     358
Kosovo          337
North Macedonia 332
Armenia         312
Jersey          297
Iran            290
Isle of Man     288
Argentina       282
South Africa    267
Canada          241
Honduras        233
Romania         230
Bosnia and Herzegovina 229
Iraq            211
Montenegro      207
Guernsey        205
Aruba           205
Switzerland     204
Montserrat      200
Luxembourg      198
Dominican Republic 196
Portugal        184
Guatemala       184
U.S. Virgin Islands 182
Oman            181
Puerto Rico     178
Bahamas         177
Guam            168
Suriname        165
Kyrgyzstan      162
Bermuda         141
Costa Rica      138
Bahrain         136
Russia          132
Kuwait          131
Saudi Arabia    130
Israel          129
Albania         127
El Salvador     120
Turks and Caicos Islands 116
Germany         114
Denmark         109
Serbia          107
Bulgaria        106
Eswatini        94.2
Turkey          90.3
Cape Verde      89.8
Kazakhstan      89
Paraguay        87.7
Maldives        86.1
Austria         85.9
Ukraine         85.2
Belarus         82.9
Guyana          81.3
Qatar           76.4
Sao Tome and Principe 71.3
Hungary         69.9
Slovenia        64.4
India           63.4
Libya           62.6
Finland         61.6
Croatia         61.1
Poland          59.8
Equatorial Guinea 57.1
Egypt           57
Azerbaijan      56.9
Djibouti        55
Morocco         49.8
Norway          49.7
Estonia         48.2
Palestine       47.8
Czech Republic  46.6
Philippines     45.6
Belize          45.3
Trinidad and Tobago 44.7
Namibia         44.7
Gambia          44.7
Afghanistan     43.7
Lebanon         41.9
United Arab Emirates 40.8

Disclaimer: The script doing the calculation, at W:User talk:Dan Polansky, is not peer reviewed. One source of error may be that a country or region is skipped altogether during the data extraction.

As an additional data set, deaths per million inhabitants in Chinese provinces calculated from W:Template:2019–20 coronavirus pandemic data/China medical cases by province, where the template was last updated on 2020-03-18:

Hubei           52.9
Hainan          0.6
Beijing         0.364
Heilongjiang    0.342
Henan           0.229
Chongqing       0.2
Tianjin         0.188
Shanghai        0.125
Xinjiang        0.12
Anhui           0.0952
Hebei           0.08
Shaanxi         0.0789
Gansu           0.0769
Guangdong       0.0714
Shandong        0.07
Hunan           0.058
Guizhou         0.0556
Yunnan          0.0417
Guangxi         0.0408
Inner Mongolia  0.04
Jilin           0.037
Sichuan         0.0361
Fujian          0.0256
Liaoning        0.0227
Jiangxi         0.0217
Zhejiang        0.0175
Jiangsu         0
Tibet           0
Qinghai         0
Ningxia         0
Shanxi          0

Deaths per million inhabitants for Wuhan calculated from W:Template:2020 coronavirus quarantines:

Wuhan           349

Deaths per million inhabitants for Italian regions calculated from W:it:Pandemia di COVID-19 del 2020 in Italia and W:it:Regione (Italia):

Lombardia       1683
Valle d'Aosta   1162
Liguria         1022
Emilia-Romagna  1002
Piemonte        953
Trentino-Alto Adige 650
Marche          648
Veneto          439
Abruzzo         361
Toscana         309
Friuli-Venezia Giulia 287
Lazio           151
Puglia          143
Umbria          93
Sardegna        86
Campania        78.4
Molise          75.3
Sicilia         59.2
Calabria        50.3
Basilicata      49.7

On breakdown into regions: If the objective is to get an impression of how bad things can get if the covid is let completely unchecked, it is key to look at the region level, e.g. Lombardia instead of the whole Italy, or Wuhan instead of the whole Hubei or even the whole China. In general, things can possibly get even worse in the unchecked scenario since Lombardia did not let covid completely unchecked, and nor did Wuhan.

Deaths in context

Total covid-positive (not covid-caused) deaths from W:Template:2019–20 coronavirus pandemic data alongside 2017 average daily deaths calculated from annual-number-of-deaths-by-cause.csv obtained from ourworldindata.org, 2020-09-20 17:34 UTC:

Region     Covid-Positive Deaths  2017 Avg Daily Deaths   Ratio
Abkhazia                       7        N/A
Afghanistan                 1437        549       2.62
Albania                      362         58       6.24
Algeria                     1665        436       3.82
Andorra                       53          1      53.00
Angola                       147        470       0.31
Anguilla                       0        N/A
Antigua and Barbuda            3          1       3.00
Argentina                  12799        881      14.53
Armenia                      925         78      11.86
Artsakh                        2        N/A
Aruba                         23        N/A
Australia                    849        445       1.91
Austria                      766        217       3.53
Azerbaijan                   574        207       2.77
Bahamas                       69          7       9.86
Bahrain                      216          9      24.00
Bangladesh                  4939       2319       2.13
Barbados                       7          7       1.00
Belarus                      780        330       2.36
Belgium                     9936        285      34.86
Belize                        19          5       3.80
Benin                         40        201       0.20
Bermuda                        9          1       9.00
Bhutan                         0         11       0.00
Bolivia                     7586        175      43.35
Bonaire                        1        N/A
Bosnia and Herzegovina       752        101       7.45
Botswana                      11         38       0.29
Brazil                    136532       3528      38.70
British Virgin Islands         1        N/A
Brunei                         3          5       0.60
Bulgaria                     734        295       2.49
Burkina Faso                  55        444       0.12
Burundi                        1        210       0.00
Cambodia                       0        275       0.00
Cameroon                     415        492       0.84
Canada                      9211        730      12.62
Cape Verde                    50          8       6.25
Cayman Islands                 1        N/A
Central African Republic      62        163       0.38
Chad                          81        373       0.22
Charles de Gaulle              0        N/A
Chile                      12286        304      40.41
China                       4634      28036       0.17
Colombia                   24039        615      39.09
Comoros                        7         11       0.64
Congo                         88         99       0.89
Coral Princess                 3        N/A
Costa Atlantica                0        N/A
Costa Rica                   706         63      11.21
Croatia                      248        137       1.81
Cuba                         111        268       0.41
Curaçao                       1        N/A
Cyprus                        22         20       1.10
Czech Republic               499        298       1.67
DR Congo                     268        N/A
Denmark                      635        143       4.44
Diamond Princess              14        N/A
Djibouti                      61         16       3.81
Dominica                       0          2       0.00
Dominican Republic          2044        178      11.48
Donetsk PR                   163        N/A
East Timor                     0        N/A
Ecuador                    11044        234      47.20
Egypt                       5750       1421       4.05
El Salvador                  811        113       7.18
Equatorial Guinea             83         19       4.37
Eritrea                        0        109       0.00
Estonia                       64         42       1.52
Eswatini                     103        N/A
Ethiopia                    1089       1352       0.81
Falkland Islands               0        N/A
Faroe Islands                  0        N/A
Fiji                           2         19       0.11
Finland                      339        146       2.32
France                     31274       1508      20.74
French Polynesia               2        N/A
Gabon                         53         29       1.83
Gambia                       108         34       3.18
Georgia                       19        139       0.14
Germany                     9464       2528       3.74
Ghana                        297        517       0.57
Gibraltar                      0        N/A
Greece                       313        324       0.97
Greenland                      0          1       0.00
Greg Mortimer                  1        N/A
Grenada                        0          3       0.00
Guam                          29          3       9.67
Guatemala                   3105        243      12.78
Guernsey                      13        N/A
Guinea                        63        272       0.23
Guinea-Bissau                 39         37       1.05
Guyana                        64         15       4.27
HNLMS Dolfijn                  0        N/A
Haiti                        221        225       0.98
Honduras                    2166        120      18.05
Hong Kong                    103        N/A
Hungary                      683        332       2.06
Iceland                       10          6       1.67
India                      86752      25270       3.43
Indonesia                   9553       4465       2.14
Iran                       24301        993      24.47
Iraq                        8491        393      21.61
Ireland                     1792         81      22.12
Isle of Man                   24        N/A
Israel                      1196        119      10.05
Italy                      35692       1667      21.41
Ivory Coast                  120        468       0.26
Jamaica                       58         53       1.09
Japan                       1500       3689       0.41
Jersey                        32        N/A
Jordan                        30         69       0.43
Kazakhstan                  1671        373       4.48
Kenya                        642        752       0.85
Kosovo                       601          0        nan
Kuwait                       584         20      29.20
Kyrgyzstan                  1063         94      11.31
Laos                           0        119       0.00
Latvia                        36         76       0.47
Lebanon                      286         90       3.18
Lesotho                       33         67       0.49
Liberia                       82         76       1.08
Libya                        430         90       4.78
Liechtenstein                  1        N/A
Lithuania                     87        111       0.78
Luhansk PR                    17        N/A
Luxembourg                   124         12      10.33
MS Zaandam                     4        N/A
Macau                          0        N/A
Madagascar                   215        490       0.44
Malawi                       179        327       0.55
Malaysia                     130        426       0.31
Maldives                      33          3      11.00
Mali                         128        453       0.28
Malta                         17         10       1.70
Mauritania                   160         51       3.14
Mauritius                     10         28       0.36
Mexico                     73258       1936      37.84
Moldova                     1203        119      10.11
Monaco                         1        N/A
Mongolia                       0         59       0.00
Montenegro                   129         18       7.17
Montserrat                     1        N/A
Morocco                     1795        583       3.08
Mozambique                    39        648       0.06
Myanmar                       89       1078       0.08
Namibia                      112         46       2.43
Nepal                        411        477       0.86
Netherlands                 6273        393      15.96
New Caledonia                  0        N/A
New Zealand                   25         85       0.29
Nicaragua                    147         63       2.33
Niger                         69        426       0.16
Nigeria                     1094       4044       0.27
North Macedonia              689        N/A
Northern Cyprus                4        N/A
Northern Mariana Islands       2          1       2.00
Norway                       267        107       2.50
Oman                         818         29      28.21
Pakistan                    6416       3694       1.74
Palestine                    244         37       6.59
Panama                      2247         50      44.94
Papua New Guinea               6        216       0.03
Paraguay                     636         86       7.40
Peru                       31369        376      83.43
Philippines                 4984       1747       2.85
Poland                      2293       1064       2.16
Portugal                    1899        304       6.25
Puerto Rico                  570         92       6.20
Qatar                        210          9      23.33
Romania                     4435        728       6.09
Russia                     19418       5013       3.87
Rwanda                        22        178       0.12
Saba                           0        N/A
Sahrawi Arab DR                2        N/A
Saint Kitts and Nevis          0        N/A
Saint Lucia                    0          3       0.00
Saint Pierre and Miquelon      0        N/A
Saint Vincent                  0        N/A
San Marino                    42        N/A
Sao Tome and Principe         15          3       5.00
Saudi Arabia                4458        242      18.42
Senegal                      302        220       1.37
Serbia                       741        336       2.21
Seychelles                     0          2       0.00
Sierra Leone                  72        182       0.40
Singapore                     27         53       0.51
Sint Eustatius                 0        N/A
Sint Maarten                  20        N/A
Slovakia                      39        143       0.27
Slovenia                     135         53       2.55
Somalia                       98        342       0.29
Somaliland                    31        N/A
South Africa               15940       1263      12.62
South Korea                  383        811       0.47
South Ossetia                  0        N/A
South Sudan                   49        243       0.20
Spain                      30495       1107      27.55
Sri Lanka                     13        333       0.04
Sudan                        836        506       1.65
Suriname                      97         11       8.82
Sweden                      5865        241      24.34
Switzerland                 1762        168      10.49
Syria                        170        312       0.54
Taiwan                         7        485       0.01
Tajikistan                    73        126       0.58
Thailand                      59       1244       0.05
Togo                          41        127       0.32
Trinidad and Tobago           61         30       2.03
Tunisia                      133        178       0.75
Turkey                      7506       1053       7.13
Turks and Caicos Islands       5        N/A
U.S. Virgin Islands           19        N/A
USS Theodore Roosevelt         1        N/A
Uganda                        58        582       0.10
Ukraine                     3557       1903       1.87
United Arab Emirates         404         66       6.12
United Kingdom             41777       1597      26.16
United States             202409       7564      26.76
Uruguay                       46         87       0.53
Uzbekistan                   429        570       0.75
Vatican City                   0        N/A
Venezuela                    530        453       1.17
Vietnam                       35       1598       0.02
Yemen                        585        420       1.39
Zambia                       324        310       1.05
Zimbabwe                     224        314       0.71

Deaths per total confirmed cases

Total covid-positive deaths per total covid-confirmed cases, calculated from W:List of countries and dependencies by population on 2020-09-20 17:34 UTC, ignoring regions with less than 100 confirmed cases and regions with zero deaths (this is not the actual case fatality rate properly obtained by random sampling, and may differ 10 or even 100 times from it):

Yemen           0.29
Italy           0.12
United Kingdom  0.11
Mexico          0.11
Belgium         0.1
Ecuador         0.089
Jersey          0.081
Chad            0.075
Isle of Man     0.071
France          0.071
Netherlands     0.07
Sweden          0.066
Canada          0.065
Liberia         0.062
Sudan           0.062
Niger           0.058
Bolivia         0.058
San Marino      0.058
Iran            0.058
Donetsk PR      0.057
Egypt           0.056
Ireland         0.054
China           0.054
Guernsey        0.051
Bermuda         0.051
Spain           0.048
Syria           0.045
Mali            0.044
North Macedonia 0.042
Peru            0.041
Kosovo          0.041
Bulgaria        0.04
Romania         0.039
Indonesia       0.039
Barbados        0.038
Finland         0.038
Hungary         0.038
Burkina Faso    0.038
Angola          0.038
Afghanistan     0.037
Andorra         0.037
Guatemala       0.036
Switzerland     0.036
Slovenia        0.035
Germany         0.035
Somaliland      0.034
Sint Maarten    0.034
Algeria         0.034
Sierra Leone    0.033
Vietnam         0.033
Colombia        0.032
Australia       0.032
Malawi          0.031
Puerto Rico     0.031
Gambia          0.031
Honduras        0.03
Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.03
Brazil          0.03
Nicaragua       0.03
Zimbabwe        0.03
Guyana          0.03
United States   0.029
El Salvador     0.029
Albania         0.029
Denmark         0.029
Poland          0.029
Somalia         0.029
Mauritius       0.028
Portugal        0.028
Chile           0.028
Iraq            0.027
Lesotho         0.027
Moldova         0.026
Haiti           0.026
DR Congo        0.026
Togo            0.025
Turkey          0.025
South Africa    0.024
Uruguay         0.024
Latvia          0.024
Kyrgyzstan      0.024
Zambia          0.023
Lithuania       0.023
Luhansk PR      0.023
Greece          0.023
Serbia          0.023
Mauritania      0.022
Cuba            0.022
Estonia         0.022
Bahamas         0.022
Panama          0.021
Pakistan        0.021
Norway          0.021
Cameroon        0.021
Brunei          0.021
Suriname        0.021
Senegal         0.021
Hong Kong       0.021
Argentina       0.021
Ukraine         0.02
Austria         0.02
Eswatini        0.02
Armenia         0.02
Diamond Princess 0.02
Paraguay        0.019
Nigeria         0.019
Japan           0.019
Dominican Republic 0.019
South Sudan     0.019
Morocco         0.018
Congo           0.018
Russia          0.018
Kenya           0.018
Benin           0.018
Philippines     0.017
Montenegro      0.017
Guinea-Bissau   0.017
New Zealand     0.017
Luxembourg      0.017
Myanmar         0.017
Thailand        0.017
South Korea     0.017
Croatia         0.017
Equatorial Guinea 0.017
Sao Tome and Principe 0.017
India           0.016
Ethiopia        0.016
Trinidad and Tobago 0.016
Libya           0.016
Kazakhstan      0.016
Tunisia         0.016
U.S. Virgin Islands 0.015
Comoros         0.015
Azerbaijan      0.015
Cyprus          0.014
Guam            0.014
Bangladesh      0.014
Taiwan          0.014
Madagascar      0.014
Saudi Arabia    0.014
Central African Republic 0.013
Malaysia        0.013
Belize          0.012
Jamaica         0.012
Papua New Guinea 0.012
Uganda          0.011
Djibouti        0.011
Costa Rica      0.011
Namibia         0.011
Czech Republic  0.011
Abkhazia        0.01
Belarus         0.01
Lebanon         0.01
Cape Verde      0.0097
Botswana        0.0095
Liechtenstein   0.0089
Oman            0.0089
Uzbekistan      0.0084
Venezuela       0.0081
Tajikistan      0.008
Greg Mortimer   0.0078
Turks and Caicos Islands 0.0075
Palestine       0.0072
Israel          0.0067
Aruba           0.0066
Jordan          0.0066
Mozambique      0.0065
Ghana           0.0065
Malta           0.0065
Nepal           0.0064
Ivory Coast     0.0063
Guinea          0.0062
Gabon           0.0061
Slovakia        0.006
Artsakh         0.0059
Kuwait          0.0059
Monaco          0.0058
Northern Cyprus 0.0058
Georgia         0.0057
Cayman Islands  0.0048
United Arab Emirates 0.0048
Rwanda          0.0048
Iceland         0.0043
Curaçao        0.004
Sri Lanka       0.004
Bahrain         0.0035
Maldives        0.0034
Burundi         0.0021
Qatar           0.0017
French Polynesia 0.0017
USS Theodore Roosevelt 0.00091
Singapore       0.00047

Deaths per total confirmed cases in Lombardia and Emilia-Romagna calculated from W:it:Pandemia di COVID-19 del 2020 in Italia on 2020-05-01 17:17 UTC:

Lombardia       0.181
Emilia-Romagna  0.139

Data interpretation and caution: The above result stems from at least the following factors:

• 1) Incomplete detection via incomplete testing
• 2) Deaths due to covid vs. deaths with covid (covid-positive in both cases)
• 3) True covid case fatality rate.

Incomplete detection impacts both confirmed cases and deaths, but arguably, it impacts much more the confirmed cases (in general) since deaths are preceded by health problems and these give impulse for testing. Since different countries have different degree of case testing and post-mortem testing, the calculated ratios listed above are not directly comparable between countries and are given only to provide a very first rough idea.

Healthcare system overload

Too many active cases per million people can overload the healthcare system, as happened in Wuhan and Italy, leading to drastically increased deaths per one thousand infected. Furthermore, there are second-order phenonema: the capacity of the system is further reduced by doctors and nurses becoming sick themselves and no longer supporting the patients.

Alas, see also Wikiversity:COVID-19/Dan Polansky#Healthcare overload in media in recent years.

Links:

• The end of China’s epidemic may be in sight, but Italy’s is surging, Mar 19, nytimes.com
• The Extraordinary Decisions Facing Italian Doctors, March 11, theatlantic.com
• The demand for inpatient and ICU beds for COVID-19 in the US: lessons from Chinese cities, 2020, medrxiv.org
• Italy, Pandemic’s New Epicenter, Has Lessons for the World, Mar 21, nytimes.com

ICU beds and ventilators

The number of ICU beds and ventilators (artificial ventilation machines) per inhabitant varies between countries.

ICU beds per 100 000 capita:

• Czechia:
  • 11.6 per a 2012 source[4]
  • 42 per multiple sources probably tracing back to one source[5][6][7]; there are 4450 ICU beds
• Germany: 29.2 per a 2012 source[8]
• Italy: 12.5 per a 2012 source[9]
• Lombardy: 7 based on 720 pre-covid beds at "85% to 90% occupancy during the winter months"
• China: 3.6 per forbes article
• New York City: 19 based on 1,600 ICU beds[10] and 8,4 million inhabitants.

Some ventilator counts:

• Germany has 25,000 ventilators and ordered additional 10,000 ones.
• Israel has 4000 ventilators.
• UK ordered 10,000 ventilators; UK has 5000 or 8000 ventilators per the two sources used by the Wikipedia template.
• Czechia has about 3500 ventilators; or 2080 ICU beds with ventilators[11]
• South Korea has about 9800 ventilators per W:Template:Hospital beds by country.
• Italy has 3000 ventilators per the source used by the Wikipedia template.

Ventilator counts per 100 000 capita using the above and W:List of countries and dependencies by population:

• Czechia:
  • 32; but it has 11.6 ICU-CCB beds per 100 000 capita: is this combination of numbers possible?
  • 19; per different source[12][13], there are 4450 ICU beds, of which 2080 have ventilators. That yields 19 vents per 1E5 capita and 42 ICU beds per 1E5 capita.
• Israel: 44
• Italy: 5
• South Korea: 19
• UK: 10
• Germany: 30

The ratio of confirmed cases needing an ICU bed to those needing hospitalization:

• Czechia: less than 20% of covid-hospitalized need an ICU bed, per an aggregate of a table in mzcr.cz source.
• Lombardy: about 16% of covid-hospitalized patients needed an ICU bed.

Links:

• W:Template:Hospital beds by country -- has ICU bed counts per capita, per country; has ventilator total counts per country but incomplete

Refs:

Protection

Protection of self and others per BBC[14][15]:

• Wash your hands for about 20 s with soap and hot water or use sanitizer gel.
• Use a tissue for caughs; if you don't have tissue, use your sleeve.
• Avoid touching face.
• Avoid close contact with people who are unwell.

Protection of self and others per Swiss BAG[16]:

• Keep distance from other people, especially elderly.
• Thoroughly wash your hands.
• Do not greet by shaking hands.
• When you caugh, do so into a handkerchief or the arm.
• If you have fever and caugh, stay at home.
• Personally visit a doctor or emergency department only after an agreement via phone.

Face masks

Some countries order or recommend citizens to wear face masks.

Links:

• How to Make a Face Mask, Joann Fabric and Craft Stores at youtube.com -- sewing required
• Jak ušít roušku, která opravdu sedí - návod, Tvůrci v praxi at youtube.com -- sewing required

Teleworking

Home office (work from home):

• Prague branch of Nestlé makes work from home mandatory for some employees
• Google does something
• Twitter does something
• Microsoft does something
• Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Microsoft do something
• European parliament does something
• China did a lot

Refs:

Travel restrictions

Travel bans:

• U.S. banned entry for U.S. non-citizens who have been recently in China[17]
• Czechia banned all direct flights from China to all international airports in Czechia[18].
• Australia banned travel from China on 1 February.
• "Israel is banning the entry of foreign nationals who have been in China, Thailand, Singapore, Japan and South Korea over the last two weeks."
• Israel banned entry from Italy to Israeli non-citizens.

Flight bans:

• Lufthansa canceled flights to mainland China until Mar 28.
• Over 20 airlines cancelled all China flights; many other airlines cancelled some China flights.

Links:

• Travel Restrictions on China due to COVID-19, thinkglobalhealth.org - shows travel restrictions as a map and as a list
• Which countries currently have coronavirus travel restrictions in place?, theguardian.com

Refs:

Shutting schools

Shutting schools at some level of education:

• Czechia does and Slovakia does
• Italy does
• Ireland does
• etc.

Links:

• COVID-19 Educational Disruption and Response, unesco.org

Refs:

Other shutdowns

Shutdowns other than travel and schools:

• Czech government issued nationwide quarantine on Mar 16.[19].
  • Czechia closed all shops except for food stores, pharmacies, and some other exceptions.
• Bavaria ordered a partial lockdown.
• France ordered a shutdown.
• "Italy is to close all shops except food stores and pharmacies in Europe's toughest lockdown yet as virus deaths and cases continue to mount. [...] bars, restaurants, hairdressers and non-essential company departments would also close."
• Spain ordered a shutdown.
• Multiple U.S. states ordered a shutdown.

Refs:

Shutdown effect delay

According to a chart from Journal of the American Medical Association, China made shutdown of Wuhan on Jan 23 and daily confirmed cases peaked on Feb 4; source found via a Tomas Pueyo article

Point: That is 12 days later. The effect on real daily new cases was pretty immediate but it showed up as a peak in the measured daily new cases with about 12 day delay.

Discussion

Discussion 1:

• A: More people die from common flu than from covid-19. What's the deal about covid-19?
• B: If covid-19 becomes as widespread as common flu, many more people will be dying from it than from common flu, as per #Death rate. Attempted containment is very much worthwhile
• C: As for "Attempted containment is very much worthwhile", that statement is so vague as to be nearly meaningless. What kind of containment are we talking about and what is the price we are considering to pay? Zero intervention fails to prevent deaths; strong intervention may prevent some deaths while causing other deaths. Proper quantitative analysis is required.

Czechia

Czechia, aka Czech Republic, implemented multiple measures against the covid.

Links:

• Pandemie COVID-19 v Česku, wikipedia.org
• COVID-19: Přehled aktuální situace v ČR, mzcr.cz
• Czech Republic goes into quarantine to slow down coronavirus spread, Mar 16, radio.cz
• Shrnuto: jaká opatření nařídila česká vláda v boji proti šíření nákazy koronaviru?, ihned.cz

Videos

Videos:

• Coronavirus: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO), Mar 1, 2020, youtube.com
• Coronavirus outbreak: Canadian WHO doctor returns from China with critical COVID-19 lessons, Mar 5, 2020, youtube.com

Posters

Posters:

Links

Featured links:

• Coronavirus Update (Live), worldometers.info - great graphs and other goodies; later: the graphs show exponentially growing cases and deaths without at the same time showing exponentially growing test counts: defect
• Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now by Tomas Pueyo, Mar 10, medium.com - Later: Pueyo lacks the expertise, but more importantly, he does not account for test count growth, and confuses the confirmed case growth with real case growth. He has fooled many.
• Facts about Covid-19 - Swiss Propaganda Research, swprs.org

More links:

• Coronavirus maps and charts: A visual guide to the outbreak, bbc.com
• W:2019–20 coronavirus outbreak, wikipedia.org
• W:Timeline of the 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak in February 2020, wikipedia.org
• Commons:Category:Maps about the 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak, commons.wikimedia.org
• COVID-19: informace pro občany, mzcr.cz
• Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports, who.int

• Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), ourworldindata.org
• Roušky a kritické myšlení #RouškyVšem (Petr Ludwig), youtube.com
• Velký manuál ke koronaviru od expertů z Bulovky: co víme, proč zůstat doma a jak se ochránit, Mar 17, lidovky.cz
• Which Country Has Flattened the Curve for the Coronavirus?, Mar 19, nytimes.com - a huge number of graphs for many countries next to each other