User:Dan Polansky/COVID-19

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What follows is to supplement other Wikimedia sources on the current COVID-19 pandemic. Another page is Wikiversity:COVID-19/Dan Polansky.

Featured sections: #Deaths per capita, #Deaths in context.

Extent of spread[edit]

Total confirmed deaths per capita worldwide
Total confirmed cases per capita worldwide
Total confirmed cases per capita in Europe
Total deaths per capita in Europe
Total confirmed cases per million inhabitans in Czechia

Links:

Flatten the curve[edit]

Discussion:

  • A: Containment is probably impossible. We would be better off without all the restrictive measures that cause economic harm and psychological harm.
  • B: Even if containment is impossible (an if), significant delay of spread is very much possible and gains us time to develop a vaccine and faster testing, expand capacity in hospitals, ramp up manufacturing of medical aids and to better prepare for more extensive spread in other ways. The containment measures are the same as spread delay measures.
  • C: Failure to delay infections and flatten the curve of infections is very likely to increase the death rate, in part by failure of the overflooded healthcare facilities to provide the intensive care required, e.g. breathing machines. The difference can be observed by comparing the nominal death rates of Italy and South Korea.
  • D: We have to distinguish between regions with low quantities of healthcare capacities and regions with high quantities. We have to look at the number of ICU beds per 100 000 inhabitans and the number of ventilators per 100 000 inhabitants; these vary vastly between regions. Furthermore, we have to reckon with different levels of air pollution and the associated susceptibility to lung diseases. And we must not confuse the exponential growth of confirmed cases due to exponential growth of tests with the exponential growth of real cases. Extrapolating from one region to another without making due considerations of these factors leads to gross misestimates.

Quotes:

  • “The people in our lives who are most at risk — seniors and those with underlying health conditions — are depending on all of us to make the right choice,” Newson said.[1]

SlowTheSpread.png

Links:

Refs:

  1. California governor calls for all public gatherings to be canceled due to coronavirus, Mar 12, nypost.com

Containment[edit]

Containment:

  • Some countries succeeded in containment so far.[1].
  • High portion of experts says 60-70 procent of population becomes infected as long as there is no immunity against the virus, vaccination, and cure, says Merkel.[2][3]

Refs:

  1. How Taiwan and Singapore Have Contained the Coronavirus, Mar 11, slate.com
  2. Germany: Merkel says 60-70 per cent of population could become infected by coronavirus, Mar 11, Ruptly at youtube.com
  3. BPK: Angela Merkel, Jens Spahn & Lothar Wieler (RKI) zum Coronavirus, phoenix at youtube.com, 1:17:52 duration

Death rate[edit]

Death rate AKA case fatality rate:

  • The case fatality rate (CFR) is reported to be estimated at about 2%, that is, the statistical tendency is that of 100 infected persons, 2 die[1][2], but calculating the figure is fraught with problems[3].
  • "For comparison, the case fatality rate with seasonal flu in the United States is less than 0.1% (1 death per every 1,000 cases)."[3]
  • The rate of deaths to number of cases is about 3.4% globally as of Mar 06[3].
  • Breakdown: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths, worldometers.info
  • Pitfalls:
    • The reported case counts are probably an order-of-magnitude wrong as an indication of real cases for most countries, or even more.[4].
    • The case counts, even if they were accurate, are counts of cases yet to develop while the death count is part of the closed cases; therefore, one would have to take the current death count and past case count. This pitfall goes in the other direction than the first pitfall.
    • The death rate depends on whether overload of healthcare system takes place, and therefore, a globally calculated death rate is too high for unoverloaded countries/regions and too low for overloaded countries/regions.
    • Deaths by the covid (caused by covid) would properly need to be distinguished from deaths with covid (covid-positive deaths with little or no covid contribution), and that seems often not done.

Links:

Refs:

  1. Coronavirus spreads faster outside China, stoking global fears, Feb 25, reuters.com
  2. What is coronavirus and what should I do if I have symptoms?, theguardian.com
  3. a b c Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate, worldometers.info
  4. Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now by Tomas Pueyo, Mar 10, medium.com

War comparison[edit]

Comparing COVID-19 to war:

  • In World War II, total USSR sufferred 13.7% losses, in terms of per capita.[1]
  • In World War II, the world sufferred about 3% losses.[2]
  • In World War II, Czechoslovakia suffered 2.33% to 2.43% losses.[3]
  • Compare that to 5% death rate that can arise in COVID-19 managed via overflooded healthcare system; if 50% of population gets infected, you get 2.5% losses across the whole population.

Discussion:

  • A: Where do you have that 5% death rate from? You cannot trust the raw nominal CFR and you cannot trust the preliminary studies on CFR. The above is very tentative.
  • B: What about other countries? What were the U.S. losses and the Polish losses in WWII?
  • C: Various countries suffer 1% deaths in a year, per W:List of sovereign states and dependent territories by mortality rate; that is, 1 in 100 persons dies in a year. For instance, in the U.S. there were 8.15 deaths per 1000 people per year in 2017, per the same source.

Spread rate[edit]

Spread rate AKA transmission rate:

  • The Ro is 1.5 - 3.5; it is the mean count of people that will be infected by a single infected person.[1]
  • "The Ro for the common flu is 1.3 [...]"[1]

The growth curve of the current COVID-19 epidemic:

  • The curve showing the number of active cases starts exponential, bd, where b is a base and d is the number of days elapsed. What limits the exponential growth is the increasing immunization of past cases and running out of population to infect further. What further limits the exponential growth are containment interventions.
  • The curve starting exponential can be verified by showing the time development on a logarithmic y-axis (e.g. for Italy, worldometers.info, click on "logarithmic") and seeing a straight line; any straight-line portion of such a graph that is not horizontal shows exponential growth with a fixed base, where different slopes of straight-line portions correspond to different base of the exponential growth.
  • Since the rate of change of an exponential function is again an exponential function (with the same base, but, in general, multiplied by a different constant factor), also the curve showing daily increases rather than daily totals is going to be exponential. Furthermore, for a death rate not changing in time, the daily deaths are going to be exponential as well; for increasing death rate, even worse.
  • If b is 1.2 and we follow 90 days, we get the following development of case totals, rounded to integers:
    • 1st 30 days: 1; 1; 1; 2; 2; 2; 3; 4; 5; 6; 7; 8; 10; 12; 15; 18; 22; 26; 31; 38; 46; 55; 66; 79; 95; 114; 137; 164; 197; 237
    • 2nd 30 days: 284; 341; 410; 492; 590; 708; 850; 1,020; 1,224; 1,469; 1,763; 2,116; 2,539; 3,047; 3,657; 4,388; 5,266; 6,319; 7,583; 9,100; 10,920; 13,104; 15,725; 18,870; 22,644; 27,173; 32,608; 39,130; 46,956; 56,347
    • 3rd 30 days: 67,617; 81,140; 97,368; 116,842; 140,210; 168,252; 201,903; 242,283; 290,740; 348,888; 418,666; 502,400; 602,880; 723,456; 868,147; 1,041,776; 1,250,132; 1,500,158; 1,800,190; 2,160,228; 2,592,274; 3,110,728; 3,732,874; 4,479,449; 5,375,339; 6,450,407; 7,740,489; 9,288,586; 11,146,304; 13,375,565.
    • That is, we end up with 13 million infected in 90 days.
  • The day on which the 1st case is confirmed in a region is the day on which to take drastic measures to contain the spread: the 1st confirmed case indicates very likely multiple real cases, and these are already too many to contain completely.
  • Late objection: The b of 1.2 is realistic for confirmed cases but not necessarily for true cases since we need to account for exponential growth of tests. Once the exponential growth of tests slows down, the growth of confirmed cases slows down as well.

2020 coronavirus cases outside China.svg

Refs:

  1. a b How contagious is the Wuhan Coronavirus? (Ro) in Coronavirus Update (Live), worldometers.info

Links:

  • W:de:COVID-19-Pandemie, de.wikipedia.org - great bar charts near the top showing development of counts in time

Means of spread[edit]

  • Thought to be primarily via droplets caughed out or sneezed out.
  • Spread via surfaces is also considered[1].

Refs:

  1. Covid-19: How long does the coronavirus last on surfaces?, Mar 17, bbc.com

Pandemic potential[edit]

Pandemic potential:

  • Declared to be a pandemic by WHO.
  • OLD: Some authorities/experts indicate there is a pandemic potential, other authorities/experts there is already a pandemic.[1][2]

Refs:

  1. Analysis: How close are we to a pandemic?, Feb 25, bbc.com
  2. Australia declares coronavirus will become a pandemic as it extends China travel ban, Feb 27, theguardian.com.

Test count[edit]

Count of tests performed per worldometers.info, Mar 9[1], top 5 from available data:

  • South Korea: 210,144 = 4,099 per million people
  • Italy: 60,761 = 1,005 per million people
  • UK: 26,261 = 387 per million people
  • Hong Kong: 16,000 = 2,134 per million people
  • France: 11,895 = 182 per million people

Czechia:

  • Czechia, Mar 12: 1816[2] = 170 per million people

Refs:

  1. Coronavirus Testing: Criteria and Numbers by Country, worldometers.info
  2. COVID-19: Aktuální počty onemocnění koronavirem v ČR, mzcr.cz

Test ease[edit]

Ease with which citizens can get tested:

  • South Korea makes it super easy for people to get tested.[1].

Refs:

  1. South Korea's Drive-Through Testing For Coronavirus Is Fast — And Free, Mar 13, npr.org

Test coverage[edit]

Test coverage and the relationship between the official case count and real case count:

  • In many countries, there are huge discrepancies between reported cases and true cases.[1].
  • High test coverage may help combat the virus by keeing in check asymptomatic cases[2].

Refs:

  1. Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now, Mar 10, medium.com
  2. Scientists say mass tests in Italian town have halted Covid-19 there, Mar 18, theguardian.com

Links:

Confirmed cases per capita[edit]

Top 100 confirmed cases per million people (cumulative, active or not), calculated from W:List of countries and dependencies by population and W:Template:2019–20 coronavirus pandemic data on 2020-05-01 17:17 UTC:

San Marino      16958
Vatican City    13333
Andorra         9607
Luxembourg      6043
Iceland         4908
Qatar           4880
Spain           4569
Gibraltar       4274
Belgium         4254
Ireland         4188
Falkland Islands 4065
Guernsey        4013
Isle of Man     3780
Faroe Islands   3572
Switzerland     3452
Italy           3410
United States   3349
Singapore       2998
Jersey          2677
United Kingdom  2671
Monaco          2493
Portugal        2466
Netherlands     2278
Montserrat      2204
Liechtenstein   2116
Sweden          2081
Bahrain         1969
Germany         1965
France          1931
Sint Maarten    1871
Israel          1740
Austria         1735
Bermuda         1733
Denmark         1599
Belarus         1585
Panama          1548
Moldova         1453
Turkey          1445
Norway          1445
Ecuador         1426
Canada          1411
United Arab Emirates 1318
Serbia          1293
Estonia         1275
Peru            1150
Iran            1146
Cayman Islands  1109
Maldives        1056
Djibouti        1009
Cyprus          970
Malta           942
Finland         914
Kuwait          910
Aruba           890
Chile           890
Guam            818
Russia          780
Armenia         726
North Macedonia 719
Czech Republic  719
Slovenia        682
Dominican Republic 673
Saudi Arabia    665
Romania         648
U.S. Virgin Islands 545
Bosnia and Herzegovina 532
Oman            525
Montenegro      517
Croatia         509
Lithuania       501
Puerto Rico     493
Latvia          456
Kosovo          449
Brazil          413
Poland          336
Brunei          312
Northern Cyprus 307
Hungary         293
Turks and Caicos Islands 290
Saint Kitts and Nevis 284
Barbados        282
Albania         272
Australia       263
Mauritius       262
Ukraine         259
Slovakia        257
Northern Mariana Islands 249
Greece          242
Antigua and Barbuda 238
Equatorial Guinea 232
New Zealand     227
Dominica        223
Bulgaria        222
Cape Verde      220
South Korea     208
Bahamas         208
French Polynesia 207
Anguilla        202
British Virgin Islands 200
Greenland       196

Disclaimer: The script doing the calculation, at W:User talk:Dan Polansky, is not peer reviewed. One source of error may be that a country or region is skipped altogether during the data extraction.

Data quality: The confirmed cases are very likely to have hugely varying relation to actual cases, depending on test coverage.

Deaths per capita[edit]

Top 100 covid-positive (maybe covid-caused in some countries) deaths per million inhabitants, calculated from W:List of countries and dependencies by population and W:Template:2019–20 coronavirus pandemic data on 2020-05-01 17:17 UTC:

San Marino      1221
Belgium         668
Andorra         542
Spain           527
Italy           464
United Kingdom  414
France          363
Sint Maarten    320
Netherlands     280
Sweden          257
Isle of Man     252
Ireland         250
Jersey          215
Guernsey        207
Montserrat      200
United States   194
Switzerland     167
Luxembourg      144
Monaco          105
Portugal        98
Bermuda         93.7
Canada          84.8
Germany         79.8
Denmark         79
Iran            73
Austria         65.6
Ecuador         51.5
Panama          44.6
Moldova         44.4
Slovenia        43.5
Finland         39.4
Estonia         39.1
Norway          39.1
North Macedonia 39
U.S. Virgin Islands 38.2
Turkey          38.2
Romania         37.4
Northern Mariana Islands 35.6
British Virgin Islands 33.3
Hungary         33.1
Peru            32.7
Antigua and Barbuda 31.1
Puerto Rico     29.4
Dominican Republic 29.1
Guam            29
Bahamas         28.5
Brazil          28.5
Iceland         27.3
Liechtenstein   25.8
Serbia          25.7
Barbados        24.4
Israel          24.3
Turks and Caicos Islands 24.2
Czech Republic  22.2
Bosnia and Herzegovina 20.9
Aruba           17.8
Cyprus          17.1
Croatia         16.9
Poland          16.8
Lithuania       16.1
Cayman Islands  15.2
Mexico          14.7
Greece          13.1
Kosovo          12.3
Chile           12.2
Guyana          11.5
Montenegro      11.2
United Arab Emirates 11.2
Armenia         11.2
Albania         10.9
Algeria         10.5
Belarus         9.88
Bulgaria        9.49
Northern Cyprus 8.52
Latvia          8.39
Honduras        8.19
Malta           8.1
Russia          7.97
Mauritius       7.9
Ukraine         6.5
Curaçao        6.3
Kuwait          5.88
Trinidad and Tobago 5.87
Colombia        5.63
Cuba            5.44
Bolivia         5.41
Philippines     5.33
Bahrain         5.18
Sao Tome and Principe 4.96
Belize          4.9
Argentina       4.85
South Korea     4.79
Morocco         4.74
Saudi Arabia    4.73
Uruguay         4.26
Slovakia        4.21
Egypt           3.91
New Zealand     3.81
Japan           3.7
Qatar           3.64

Disclaimer: The script doing the calculation, at W:User talk:Dan Polansky, is not peer reviewed. One source of error may be that a country or region is skipped altogether during the data extraction.

As an additional data set, deaths per million inhabitants in Chinese provinces calculated from W:Template:2019–20 coronavirus pandemic data/China medical cases by province, where the template was last updated on 2020-03-18:

Hubei           52.9
Hainan          0.6
Beijing         0.364
Heilongjiang    0.342
Henan           0.229
Chongqing       0.2
Tianjin         0.188
Shanghai        0.125
Xinjiang        0.12
Anhui           0.0952
Hebei           0.08
Shaanxi         0.0789
Gansu           0.0769
Guangdong       0.0714
Shandong        0.07
Hunan           0.058
Guizhou         0.0556
Yunnan          0.0417
Guangxi         0.0408
Inner Mongolia  0.04
Jilin           0.037
Sichuan         0.0361
Fujian          0.0256
Liaoning        0.0227
Jiangxi         0.0217
Zhejiang        0.0175
Jiangsu         0
Tibet           0
Qinghai         0
Ningxia         0
Shanxi          0

Deaths per million inhabitants for Wuhan calculated from W:Template:2020 coronavirus quarantines:

Wuhan           349

Deaths per million inhabitants for Italian regions calculated from W:it:Pandemia di COVID-19 del 2020 in Italia and W:it:Regione (Italia):

Lombardia       1371
Valle d'Aosta   1090
Emilia-Romagna  796
Liguria         753
Piemonte        704
Trentino-Alto Adige 646
Marche          594
Veneto          297
Abruzzo         244
Friuli-Venezia Giulia 238
Toscana         226
Puglia          103
Umbria          76
Lazio           75
Sardegna        70.7
Molise          68.7
Campania        61.9
Sicilia         47
Basilicata      44.4
Calabria        44.2

On breakdown into regions: If the objective is to get an impression of how bad things can get if the covid is let completely unchecked, it is key to look at the region level, e.g. Lombardia instead of the whole Italy, or Wuhan instead of the whole Hubei or even the whole China. In general, things can possibly get even worse in the unchecked scenario since Lombardia did not let covid completely unchecked, and nor did Wuhan.

Deaths in context[edit]

Total covid-positive (not covid-caused) deaths from W:Template:2019–20 coronavirus pandemic data alongside 2017 average daily deaths calculated from annual-number-of-deaths-by-cause.csv obtained from ourworldindata.org, 2020-05-01 17:17 UTC:

Region     Covid-Positive Deaths  2017 Avg Daily Deaths   Ratio
Abkhazia                       0        N/A
Afghanistan                   68        549       0.12
Albania                       31         58       0.53
Algeria                      453        436       1.04
Andorra                       42          1      42.00
Angola                         2        470       0.00
Anguilla                       0        N/A
Antigua and Barbuda            3          1       3.00
Argentina                    218        881       0.25
Armenia                       33         78       0.42
Artsakh                        0        N/A
Aruba                          2        N/A
Australia                     93        445       0.21
Austria                      584        217       2.69
Azerbaijan                    24        207       0.12
Bahamas                       11          7       1.57
Bahrain                        8          9       0.89
Bangladesh                   170       2319       0.07
Barbados                       7          7       1.00
Belarus                       93        330       0.28
Belgium                     7703        285      27.03
Belize                         2          5       0.40
Benin                          1        201       0.00
Bermuda                        6          1       6.00
Bhutan                         0         11       0.00
Bolivia                       62        175       0.35
Bonaire                        0        N/A
Bosnia and Herzegovina        69        101       0.68
Botswana                       1         38       0.03
Brazil                      6017       3528       1.71
British Virgin Islands         1        N/A
Brunei                         1          5       0.20
Bulgaria                      66        295       0.22
Burkina Faso                  43        444       0.10
Burundi                        1        210       0.00
Cambodia                       0        275       0.00
Cameroon                      61        492       0.12
Canada                      3224        730       4.42
Cape Verde                     1          8       0.12
Cayman Islands                 1        N/A
Central African Republic       0        163       0.00
Chad                           5        373       0.01
Charles de Gaulle              0        N/A
Chile                        234        304       0.77
China                       4633      28036       0.17
Colombia                     278        615       0.45
Comoros                        0         11       0.00
Congo                          9         99       0.09
Coral Princess                 2        N/A
Costa Atlantica                0        N/A
Costa Rica                     6         63       0.10
Croatia                       69        137       0.50
Cuba                          61        268       0.23
Curaçao                       1        N/A
Cyprus                        15         20       0.75
Czech Republic               237        298       0.80
DR Congo                      31        N/A
Denmark                      460        143       3.22
Diamond Princess              13        N/A
Djibouti                       2         16       0.12
Dominica                       0          2       0.00
Dominican Republic           301        178       1.69
Donetsk PR                     4        N/A
East Timor                     0        N/A
Ecuador                      900        234       3.85
Egypt                        392       1421       0.28
El Salvador                   10        113       0.09
Equatorial Guinea              1         19       0.05
Eritrea                        0        109       0.00
Estonia                       52         42       1.24
Eswatini                       1        N/A
Ethiopia                       3       1352       0.00
Falkland Islands               0        N/A
Faroe Islands                  0        N/A
Fiji                           0         19       0.00
Finland                      218        146       1.49
France                     24376       1508      16.16
French Polynesia               0        N/A
Gabon                          3         29       0.10
Gambia                         1         34       0.03
Georgia                        6        139       0.04
Germany                     6637       2528       2.63
Ghana                         17        517       0.03
Gibraltar                      0        N/A
Greece                       140        324       0.43
Greenland                      0          1       0.00
Greg Mortimer                  0        N/A
Grenada                        0          3       0.00
Guam                           5          3       1.67
Guatemala                     16        243       0.07
Guernsey                      13        N/A
Guinea                         7        272       0.03
Guinea-Bissau                  1         37       0.03
Guyana                         9         15       0.60
HNLMS Dolfijn                  0        N/A
Haiti                          8        225       0.04
Honduras                      75        120       0.62
Hong Kong                      4        N/A
Hungary                      323        332       0.97
Iceland                       10          6       1.67
India                       1152      25270       0.05
Indonesia                    800       4465       0.18
Iran                        6091        993       6.13
Iraq                          93        393       0.24
Ireland                     1232         81      15.21
Isle of Man                   21        N/A
Israel                       223        119       1.87
Italy                      27967       1667      16.78
Ivory Coast                   14        468       0.03
Jamaica                        8         53       0.15
Japan                        466       3689       0.13
Jersey                        23        N/A
Jordan                         8         69       0.12
Kazakhstan                    25        373       0.07
Kenya                         21        752       0.03
Kosovo                        22          0        nan
Kuwait                        26         20       1.30
Kyrgyzstan                     8         94       0.09
Laos                           0        119       0.00
Latvia                        16         76       0.21
Lebanon                       24         90       0.27
Liberia                       16         76       0.21
Libya                          3         90       0.03
Liechtenstein                  1        N/A
Lithuania                     45        111       0.41
Luhansk PR                     1        N/A
Luxembourg                    90         12       7.50
MS Zaandam                     4        N/A
Macau                          0        N/A
Madagascar                     0        490       0.00
Malawi                         3        327       0.01
Malaysia                     103        426       0.24
Maldives                       1          3       0.33
Mali                          26        453       0.06
Malta                          4         10       0.40
Mauritania                     1         51       0.02
Mauritius                     10         28       0.36
Mexico                      1859       1936       0.96
Moldova                      119        119       1.00
Monaco                         4        N/A
Mongolia                       0         59       0.00
Montenegro                     7         18       0.39
Montserrat                     1        N/A
Morocco                      170        583       0.29
Mozambique                     0        648       0.00
Myanmar                        6       1078       0.01
Namibia                        0         46       0.00
Nepal                          0        477       0.00
Netherlands                 4893        393      12.45
New Caledonia                  0        N/A
New Zealand                   19         85       0.22
Nicaragua                      4         63       0.06
Niger                         32        426       0.08
Nigeria                       58       4044       0.01
North Macedonia               81        N/A
Northern Cyprus                3        N/A
Northern Mariana Islands       2          1       2.00
Norway                       210        107       1.96
Oman                          11         29       0.38
Pakistan                     391       3694       0.11
Palestine                      2         37       0.05
Panama                       188         50       3.76
Papua New Guinea               0        216       0.00
Paraguay                      10         86       0.12
Peru                        1051        376       2.80
Philippines                  579       1747       0.33
Poland                       644       1064       0.61
Portugal                    1007        304       3.31
Puerto Rico                   94         92       1.02
Qatar                         10          9       1.11
Romania                      726        728       1.00
Russia                      1169       5013       0.23
Rwanda                         0        178       0.00
Saba                           0        N/A
Saint Kitts and Nevis          0        N/A
Saint Lucia                    0          3       0.00
Saint Pierre and Miquelon      0        N/A
Saint Vincent                  0        N/A
San Marino                    41        N/A
Sao Tome and Principe          1          3       0.33
Saudi Arabia                 162        242       0.67
Senegal                        9        220       0.04
Serbia                       179        336       0.53
Seychelles                     0          2       0.00
Sierra Leone                   7        182       0.04
Singapore                     16         53       0.30
Sint Eustatius                 0        N/A
Sint Maarten                  13        N/A
Slovakia                      23        143       0.16
Slovenia                      91         53       1.72
Somalia                       28        342       0.08
Somaliland                     0        N/A
South Africa                 103       1263       0.08
South Korea                  248        811       0.31
South Sudan                    0        243       0.00
Spain                      24824       1107      22.42
Sri Lanka                      7        333       0.02
Sudan                         31        506       0.06
Suriname                       1         11       0.09
Sweden                      2653        241      11.01
Switzerland                 1435        168       8.54
Syria                          3        312       0.01
Taiwan                         6        485       0.01
Tajikistan                     0        126       0.00
Tanzania                      16        834       0.02
Thailand                      54       1244       0.04
Togo                           9        127       0.07
Trinidad and Tobago            8         30       0.27
Tunisia                       41        178       0.23
Turkey                      3174       1053       3.01
Turks and Caicos Islands       1        N/A
U.S. Virgin Islands            4        N/A
USS Kidd                       0        N/A
USS Theodore Roosevelt         1        N/A
Uganda                         0        582       0.00
Ukraine                      272       1903       0.14
United Arab Emirates         111         66       1.68
United Kingdom             27510       1597      17.23
United States              63982       7564       8.46
Uruguay                       15         87       0.17
Uzbekistan                     9        570       0.02
Vatican City                   0        N/A
Venezuela                     10        453       0.02
Vietnam                        0       1598       0.00
Yemen                          2        420       0.00
Zambia                         3        310       0.01
Zimbabwe                       4        314       0.01

Deaths per total confirmed cases[edit]

Total covid-positive deaths per total covid-confirmed cases, calculated from W:List of countries and dependencies by population on 2020-05-01 17:17 UTC, ignoring regions with less than 100 confirmed cases and regions with zero deaths (this is not the actual case fatality rate properly obtained by random sampling, and may differ 10 or even 100 times from it):

France          0.19
Belgium         0.16
United Kingdom  0.16
Italy           0.14
Sweden          0.12
Netherlands     0.12
Spain           0.12
Liberia         0.11
Hungary         0.11
Algeria         0.11
Mexico          0.097
Honduras        0.093
Jersey          0.08
Togo            0.078
Indonesia       0.076
San Marino      0.072
Egypt           0.071
Sudan           0.07
Trinidad and Tobago 0.069
Brazil          0.069
Burkina Faso    0.067
Isle of Man     0.067
Philippines     0.066
Iran            0.064
Slovenia        0.064
DR Congo        0.062
Canada          0.06
Ireland         0.06
Puerto Rico     0.06
United States   0.058
Romania         0.058
Andorra         0.056
China           0.056
North Macedonia 0.054
Bermuda         0.054
Greece          0.054
Bolivia         0.053
Mali            0.053
Guernsey        0.052
Sierra Leone    0.051
Kenya           0.051
Poland          0.05
Denmark         0.049
Argentina       0.049
Switzerland     0.048
Somalia         0.047
Colombia        0.045
Iraq            0.045
Niger           0.045
Dominican Republic 0.043
Finland         0.043
Bulgaria        0.043
Tunisia         0.041
Congo           0.041
Cuba            0.041
Germany         0.041
Albania         0.04
Myanmar         0.04
Portugal        0.04
Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.039
Donetsk PR      0.038
Morocco         0.038
Austria         0.038
Paraguay        0.038
Ecuador         0.036
Guam            0.035
Tanzania        0.033
Cameroon        0.033
Croatia         0.033
Lebanon         0.033
India           0.033
Lithuania       0.032
Japan           0.032
Czech Republic  0.031
Estonia         0.031
Moldova         0.031
Mauritius       0.03
Venezuela       0.03
Nigeria         0.03
Afghanistan     0.029
Panama          0.029
Peru            0.028
Zambia          0.028
Northern Cyprus 0.028
Kosovo          0.027
Norway          0.027
Guatemala       0.027
Turkey          0.026
Ukraine         0.025
Uruguay         0.024
Luxembourg      0.024
El Salvador     0.024
South Korea     0.023
Ethiopia        0.023
Pakistan        0.022
Montenegro      0.022
Bangladesh      0.021
Aruba           0.02
Serbia          0.02
Jamaica         0.019
Latvia          0.018
Diamond Princess 0.018
Thailand        0.018
South Africa    0.018
Jordan          0.018
Cyprus          0.018
Malaysia        0.017
New Zealand     0.017
Slovakia        0.016
Armenia         0.015
Taiwan          0.014
Israel          0.014
Chile           0.014
Australia       0.014
Azerbaijan      0.013
Ivory Coast     0.011
Gabon           0.011
Georgia         0.011
Kyrgyzstan      0.011
Sri Lanka       0.01
Russia          0.01
Eswatini        0.01
Senegal         0.0088
Malta           0.0086
United Arab Emirates 0.0085
Costa Rica      0.0083
Cape Verde      0.0083
Ghana           0.0082
Luhansk PR      0.0078
Brunei          0.0072
Saudi Arabia    0.0071
Kazakhstan      0.007
Kuwait          0.0065
Belarus         0.0062
Iceland         0.0056
Guinea-Bissau   0.0049
Guinea          0.0047
Oman            0.0045
Uzbekistan      0.0044
Palestine       0.0039
Hong Kong       0.0038
Equatorial Guinea 0.0032
Bahrain         0.0026
Maldives        0.0025
Djibouti        0.0018
Singapore       0.00094
USS Theodore Roosevelt 0.00091
Qatar           0.00075

Deaths per total confirmed cases in Lombardia and Emilia-Romagna calculated from W:it:Pandemia di COVID-19 del 2020 in Italia:

Lombardia       0.181
Emilia-Romagna  0.139

Data interpretation and caution: The above result stems from at least the following factors:

  • 1) Incomplete detection via incomplete testing
  • 2) Deaths due to covid vs. deaths with covid (covid-positive in both cases)
  • 3) True covid case fatality rate.

Incomplete detection impacts both confirmed cases and deaths, but arguably, it impacts much more the confirmed cases (in general) since deaths are preceded by health problems and these give impulse for testing. Since different countries have different degree of case testing and post-mortem testing, the calculated ratios listed above are not directly comparable between countries and are given only to provide a very first rough idea.

Healthcare system overload[edit]

Too many active cases per million people can overload the healthcare system, as happened in Wuhan and Italy, leading to drastically increased deaths per one thousand infected. Furthermore, there are second-order phenonema: the capacity of the system is further reduced by doctors and nurses becoming sick themselves and no longer supporting the patients.

Alas, see also Wikiversity:COVID-19/Dan Polansky#Healthcare overload in media in recent years.

Links:

ICU beds and ventilators[edit]

The number of ICU beds and ventilators (artificial ventilation machines) per inhabitant varies between countries.

ICU beds per 100 000 capita:

  • Czechia:
    • 11.6 per a 2012 source[4]
    • 42 per multiple sources probably tracing back to one source[5][6][7]; there are 4450 ICU beds
  • Germany: 29.2 per a 2012 source[8]
  • Italy: 12.5 per a 2012 source[9]
  • Lombardy: 7 based on 720 pre-covid beds at "85% to 90% occupancy during the winter months"[1]
  • China: 3.6 per forbes article
  • New York City: 19 based on 1,600 ICU beds[10] and 8,4 million inhabitants.

Some ventilator counts:

  • Germany has 25,000 ventilators and ordered additional 10,000 ones[2].
  • Israel has 4000 ventilators[3].
  • UK ordered 10,000 ventilators[4]; UK has 5000 or 8000 ventilators per the two sources used by the Wikipedia template.
  • Czechia has about 3500 ventilators[5]; or 2080 ICU beds with ventilators[11]
  • South Korea has about 9800 ventilators per W:Template:Hospital beds by country.
  • Italy has 3000 ventilators per the source used by the Wikipedia template.

Ventilator counts per 100 000 capita using the above and W:List of countries and dependencies by population:

  • Czechia:
    • 32; but it has 11.6 ICU-CCB beds per 100 000 capita: is this combination of numbers possible?
    • 19; per different source[12][13], there are 4450 ICU beds, of which 2080 have ventilators. That yields 19 vents per 1E5 capita and 42 ICU beds per 1E5 capita.
  • Israel: 44
  • Italy: 5
  • South Korea: 19
  • UK: 10[6]
  • Germany: 30

The ratio of confirmed cases needing an ICU bed to those needing hospitalization:

  • Czechia: less than 20% of covid-hospitalized need an ICU bed, per an aggregate of a table in mzcr.cz source.
  • Lombardy: about 16% of covid-hospitalized patients needed an ICU bed[1].

Links:

Refs:

  1. a b Critical Care Utilization for the COVID-19 Outbreak in Lombardy, Italy, Mar 13, jamanetwork.com
  2. Europe scrambles for beds and supplies amid coronavirus surge, Mar 22, washingtonpost.com
  3. Anxious Israelis count ventilators, or try to build their own, Mar 27, timesofisrael.com
  4. Coronavirus: Government orders 10,000 ventilators from Dyson, Mar 26, bbc.com
  5. https://www.lupa.cz/aktuality/cesky-open-source-plicni-ventilator-corovent-shani-penize-na-vyrobu-pro-nemocnice/
  6. Taking 6500 to be the number of ventilators, the average of the two available numbers 5000 and 8000.

Protection[edit]

Protection of self and others per BBC[14][15]:

  • Wash your hands for about 20 s with soap and hot water or use sanitizer gel.
  • Use a tissue for caughs; if you don't have tissue, use your sleeve.
  • Avoid touching face.
  • Avoid close contact with people who are unwell.

Protection of self and others per Swiss BAG[16]:

  • Keep distance from other people, especially elderly.
  • Thoroughly wash your hands.
  • Do not greet by shaking hands.
  • When you caugh, do so into a handkerchief or the arm.
  • If you have fever and caugh, stay at home.
  • Personally visit a doctor or emergency department only after an agreement via phone.

Face masks[edit]

Some countries order or recommend citizens to wear face masks.

Links:

Teleworking[edit]

Home office (work from home):

  • Prague branch of Nestlé makes work from home mandatory for some employees[1]
  • Google does something[2]
  • Twitter does something[3]
  • Microsoft does something[4]
  • Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Microsoft do something[5]
  • European parliament does something[6]
  • China did a lot[7]

Refs:

  1. Pražská pobočka Nestlé preventivně nařídila kvůli koronaviru některým zaměstnancům práci z domu, Feb 27, irozhlas.cz
  2. Google tells staff to work at home due to coronavirus, Mar 11, bbc.com
  3. Coronavirus: Twitter tells staff to work from home, Mar 3, bbc.com
  4. Microsoft allows employees to work from home amid coronavirus outbreak, Mar 4, theverge.com
  5. Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Microsoft are asking Seattle-based staff to work from home because of coronavirus, Mar 6, theverge.com
  6. European Parliament moves to majority teleworking in response to COVID-19, techcrunch.com
  7. How Covid-19 led to a nationwide work-from-home experiment, Mar 9, bbc.com

Travel restrictions[edit]

Travel bans:

  • U.S. banned entry for U.S. non-citizens who have been recently in China[17]
  • Czechia banned all direct flights from China to all international airports in Czechia[18].
  • Australia banned travel from China[1] on 1 February[2].
  • "Israel is banning the entry of foreign nationals who have been in China, Thailand, Singapore, Japan and South Korea over the last two weeks."[3]
  • Israel banned entry from Italy to Israeli non-citizens[4].

Flight bans:

  • Lufthansa canceled flights to mainland China until Mar 28[5].
  • Over 20 airlines cancelled all China flights[6]; many other airlines cancelled some China flights[6].

Links:

Refs:

  1. Australia declares coronavirus will become a pandemic as it extends China travel ban, Feb 27 2020, theguardian.com
  2. Australia should not relax its China travel ban, timeshighereducation.com
  3. Israel Takes Strict Approach To Control The Spread Of Coronavirus, Feb 26 2020, npr.org
  4. Italy and South Korea join China as coronavirus pariahs as countries close borders, Feb 27 2020, fortune.com
  5. German airline Lufthansa extends China flight ban over coronavirus, Feb 14 2020, thelocal.de
  6. a b Airlines Suspend China Flights Due to Coronavirus Outbreak, Feb 18 2020, nytimes.com

Shutting schools[edit]

Shutting schools at some level of education:

  • Czechia does[1] and Slovakia does[2]
  • Italy does[3]
  • Ireland does[4]
  • etc.

Links:

Refs:

  1. Czech Republic Shutting Schools, Events Over Coronavirus, Mar 10, usnews.com
  2. Coronavirus: Many schools in Slovakia have been closed (overview), Mar 11, spectator.sme.sk
  3. Italy is shutting down schools nationwide to help curb its growing coronavirus outbreak, Mar 4, vox.com
  4. Ireland announces sweeping measures to combat coronavirus, schools to close for 2 weeks, Mar 12, foxnews.com/

Other shutdowns[edit]

Shutdowns other than travel and schools:

  • Czech government issued nationwide quarantine on Mar 16.[19].
    • Czechia closed all shops except for food stores, pharmacies, and some other exceptions.[1]
  • Bavaria ordered a partial lockdown[2].
  • France ordered a shutdown[3].
  • "Italy is to close all shops except food stores and pharmacies in Europe's toughest lockdown yet as virus deaths and cases continue to mount. [...] bars, restaurants, hairdressers and non-essential company departments would also close."[4]
  • Spain ordered a shutdown[5].
  • Multiple U.S. states ordered a shutdown[6].

Refs:

  1. Czech government closes shops, restaurants, casinos , Mar 14, radio.cz
  2. German state of Bavaria heads for full coronavirus lockdown, Mar 20, politico.eu
  3. Coronavirus In Europe: Several Countries, Now Including France, Order Shutdown, Mar 16, npr.org
  4. Coronavirus: Italy shuts nearly all shops as WHO declares pandemic, Mar 12, bbc.com
  5. Spain, Hard Hit By Coronavirus Pandemic, Shuts Down, Mar 17, npr.org
  6. Coronavirus: One in five Americans ordered to stay at home, Mar 21, bbc.com

Shutdown effect delay[edit]

According to a chart from Journal of the American Medical Association, China made shutdown of Wuhan on Jan 23 and daily confirmed cases peaked on Feb 4; source found via a Tomas Pueyo article

Point: That is 12 days later. The effect on real daily new cases was pretty immediate but it showed up as a peak in the measured daily new cases with about 12 day delay.

Discussion[edit]

Discussion 1:

  • A: More people die from common flu than from covid-19. What's the deal about covid-19?
  • B: If covid-19 becomes as widespread as common flu, many more people will be dying from it than from common flu, as per #Death rate. Attempted containment is very much worthwhile
  • C: As for "Attempted containment is very much worthwhile", that statement is so vague as to be nearly meaningless. What kind of containment are we talking about and what is the price we are considering to pay? Zero intervention fails to prevent deaths; strong intervention may prevent some deaths while causing other deaths. Proper quantitative analysis is required.

Czechia[edit]

Czechia, aka Czech Republic, implemented multiple measures against the covid.

Links:

Videos[edit]

Videos:

Posters[edit]

Posters:
Coronavirus information-Czech republic.jpg Stop the Spread of Germs (COVID-19).jpg

Links[edit]

Featured links:

More links: