1. Qualitative Analysis

1.1 Manchester Metrolink

Manchester, one of the UK's major cities, has its own long history of transport. The subject of this paper is the life cycle of Manchester's trams. Historically, the city of Manchester had a busy tram system, a history that can be traced from 1902 to 1949. This history includes the replacement of horse-drawn trams by electric trams, and then the rise of buses and private cars to replace trams. [1]

The last tram run ended in 1949, after which the tram disappeared from the city of Manchester. The city of Manchester has since been faced with the problem of transport links that need to be improved. The issue was raised in 1960 and the project was launched in 1982. Finally, in 1992, a 19-mile tram line was opened, linking 26 stations, and replacing two train lines. [3] Locally, they call this tram system Metrolink.

1.1.1 Description of the mode

Metrolink is a tram system in the Manchester area of the UK that uses the basic technical features of a conventional tram. In terms of technology, it consists of routes, fleets, tram platforms, power supplies and depots. [5] The fleet used for the Metrolink system is the Bombardier M5000, a bi-directional tram, which means that the vehicle can travel in both directions. In terms of route design, the track system consists of a double line, allowing two trams to travel above each other in opposite directions. The Metrolink stations are largely converted from old railway stations. Several entrances and exits will be provided on the line. [3] Metrolink's power supply system is supplied by sustainable electricity. This electricity is generated from hydroelectric power. [6] Metrolink's major advantages include:

· Provides an efficient and reliable urban transport service. Adequate stations to meet passenger demand for fast and frequent transport services.

· Metrolink system uses sustainable electricity, reducing carbon emissions.

· Metrolink's extended routes and services allow more areas to be connected, supporting the development and growth of the city.

Metrolink's main market is the residents and visitors of the Manchester area. In addition, the system provides an important transport service to the surrounding area, making it easier for residents to access Manchester city centre.

1.1.2 Previous scenes

As mentioned, much of Metrolink was developed on the old train system. Before the coming of Metrolink, Manchester's urban transport system consisted mainly of buses and trains. Buses do not provide an efficient transport service in times of congestion. Trains, meanwhile, are limited in that they have fixed and inconvenient stopping routes, which does not allow passengers to get off close to the train. Prior to 1977, the main problem in Manchester was the poor connection of the original train system. The council had proposed that the trains be allowed to pass by digging a tunnel, which was abandoned because of the cost. [7] Moreover, as populations and cities grow, the need for fast and convenient transport is increasing. So, the transport market has evolved from congestion, detours, and a single bus-train system to fast, reliable transport services. For the government level, relatively low-budget light rail options and the conversion of old train tracks came into being. Metrolink offered increased speed and carriage space compared to buses, as well as more convenient boarding and alighting stations than trains. In addition, climate change and increased environmental awareness have stimulated interest in more environmentally friendly, low-carbon modes of transport. This had an impact on the later Metrolink electricity consumption system, which was entirely hydroelectric.

1.1.3 Technology of the mode

Metrolink's brings together different types of technical expertise. The design of the system covers electrical systems, track laying technology, signalling technology, timetable systems and fleet design. [8] The trams are supplied with electricity through the contact network, and the high voltage energy is converted into low voltage electricity for the supply of trams. Trams require a suitable track to be laid to ensure the stability and safety on the track. Signalling is required before the tram enters the station, with audible and visual alerts. After accounting for passenger demand and operating speeds, a timetable is required for passengers to check the arrival time of each tram. Prior to the invention of the electric tram, railed transport was provided by railed horse-drawn trams. [9] The horse-drawn tram has taken on the shape of a modern tram. It has a track system, signs, routes, and timetables. The early trams were based on the horse-drawn tram and improved the track system and added an electrical system. With the advancement of electrification and the development of trackless technology, the modern Metrolink has improved its speed, energy efficiency and scientific management methods over the tram systems of the last century.

1.1.4 Market development

The early market niches of Metrolink were due to the fact that Manchester's two main railway stations were built over a long period of time and therefore resulted in poor transport links between the surrounding city and the city centre. And there are no well-defined transport routes in the urban area. Relying on bus alone cannot meet the growing population and urban development. The initial market niche is therefore intra-city commuting and travel demand.

The enhanced functionality is intended to better serve the existing market and is reflected in the upgrading of the existing carriage environment. With the invention and installation of on-board air conditioning, it will provide passengers with a more comfortable ride. There are also more logical seating arrangements, such as the addition of seats for the disabled. In addition, timetables are set according to the flow of people. Add more trams and improve route coverage during the morning and evening peak commute. Functional enhancements play a role in market development to improve passenger satisfaction. By maintaining passenger demand and satisfaction with Metrolink the funds required to keep the company running and upgrading are maintained.

Functional discovery means serving new markets. With the increased demand for tourism and cross-city commerce, Metrolink has added tourist routes and business expansion projects that contribute to the economic and tourist development of the city. "Everyone goes shopping in Manchester now." Ms. Yasin, from the University of Manchester, said. "This is not transport for transport's sake; this is all about how we produce economic growth in Greater Manchester," says from chief executive of Transport for Greater Manchester, Jon Lamonte. [3]

1.1.5 Role of policy

The policy of borrowing from precursor models is that the Rail Study Group, set up in 1984, learns from the experiences of other cities by drawing on their tram models to inform the development of Metrolink. The proposal is based on existing light rail systems in North America and continental Europe. [11] The innovative policy is reflected in the government's early plans to build the Metrolink transport network in phases. Due to the large financial investment of over £1000M required. The government requires the sponsor of the construction plan to pay part of the cost in the early stages. The terms of the contract allowed tenders for each phase to be replaced by new operators and builders. [12] This policy is also a government- embedded policy that has resulted in attracting investment and support from social capital. The first phase of Metrolink was designed, built, and operated by private contractors. During the birthing phase, some elements of the policy may be locked in. For example, the parking and upgrading of trams must comply with the Disability Discrimination Act and the Rail Vehicle Accessibility Regulations.

1.1.6 Growth of the mode

In the growth of Metrolink, the public plays a driving role; the private sector plays a role in maintaining the system. Metrolink has been opened since 1992 as a solution to the problem of public mobility and urban development. Metrolink has been continuously expanded and updated to date, based on the travel needs of passengers and the expectations of government departments to connect the city to the surrounding cities in general. The private sector is involved in the investment of funds, the provision of technical support and construction, and then the operation and maintenance after completion. This is because the impact of the segment-based delivery policy has resulted in each phase of the Metrolink system being operated by a different private sector. This has the advantage that better options and choices are available. This also leads to Metrolink being continually upgraded, which tends to compete between private companies.

One of the main policy issues that arose during the growth and development phase was access to finance for the expansion of the system. The development of Metrolink has been divided into three phases. In 2000, the cost was estimated at £429 million, but by 2002 the cost was estimated at £820 million. The solution was to split the Phase 3 programme into two smaller phases, with the first £520 million investment secured in 2006; and the second funding approval passed in 2008. [12]

Growing environmental concerns have led to an increased emphasis on promoting sustainable transport modes like Metrolink. The government thus introduced various policies to support the development of public transport, such as the creation of transport agencies and the provision of funding for sustainable transport. This is the reason why Metrolink’s electricity consumption is fully hydroelectric now.

Metrolink has been successful in its growth and development phase due to the cooperation between the public and private sectors. The policy environment also plays a key role in the development of the system, with policies supporting the development of sustainable transport modes like Metrolink.

1.1.7 Mature phase of the mode

The maturity phase of development includes the expansion of services, the improvement of service quality and the introduction of new fleets. The expansion of the service includes an increase in the number of passengers, for example, no longer residents of Manchester and the surrounding cities, but also tourists and businesspeople. Improvements in service quality include the provision of caring seats to facilitate travel by the elderly as well as people with disabilities.

As mentioned, the government's financial constraints may have hindered Metrolink's funding flow and expansion plans. The preparation of funds and bids for social funding can take a significant amount of time and often delay addressing the need to upgrade or expand lines in a particular section of the region.

A global health emergency in the maturity phase is COVID-19. Some of the lockdown policies include limiting the number of people and controlling the distance between people, limiting the number of people on each tram. This led to a demand for passengers that was greater than the supply and spawned passenger non-dependence for a short period of time. A shift to more convenient modes of travel.

In terms of opportunities, Metrolink could consider developing industry-specific services. For example, for express services, Metrolink could set up specific express points in each region, where goods are delivered quickly via tram. This has the benefit of reducing the carbon emissions of conventional land transport by car and moving to more sustainable sources of energy. Reducing the time between deliveries, aiming for same-city deliveries that can be completed in less than a day.

2. Quantitative Analysis

The Manchester Metrolink passenger statistics for each year from 1992 to 2021 are available from the UK Government's Transport Statistics for Great Britain. [13] In order to predict the number of passengers from the raw data, the following formula was used.

S(t) = predicated system size in year t

t0 = midpoint (inflection point) year

K = final market size needed to identify

T = year

a = model parameters to be fit

Since the values of a, t0, and K are unknown in the formula, linear regression is used to predict these values.

X = year

Passengers =number of passengers used Metrolink

The data for 2020 and 2021 show a sharp decline because of the presence of COVID-19. So, these two years were removed from the analysis and the following results were obtained

Table 1 Summary of results

Summary
S_max	55000
b	0.09428
R(square)	0.86068
t0	2009.95

A life-cycle analysis of Metrolink in Manchester, UK, can be divided into the following four phases based on its historical development:

· Birthing phase (1992-1999)

The birth phase of the project was marked by the completion of Manchester's Metrolink in 1992. At this stage, Metrolink faces a number of problems, including financial, technical and policy issues. Therefore, the number of passengers has not increased significantly each year.

· Growth-development phase (2000-2010)

From the year 2000 onwards, Metrolink entered a phase of rapid growth and development. During this phase, Metrolink introduced new routes and services and expanded existing routes while maintaining high patronage.

· Mature phase (2010-2019)

As it reached maturity, the Metrolink system began to upgrade in line with the policy environment to ensure its ridership was maintained. Existing routes continued to be expanded and some older facilities and vehicles were updated. In addition, Metrolink has actively explored new technologies and services to better meet the changing needs of its customers. Thus, the increase in the number of passengers at this stage is significant.

· Decline (2019-2021)

After the advent of Covid-19 in 2020, Metrolink entered a phase of decline. Due to various restrictive policy measures, Metrolink's passenger numbers have plummeted. In addition, Metrolink needed to take additional measures to ensure its safety and hygiene standards.

3. Reference

[1] Allen, R., Greaves, P. and Eyre, M. (2018) Lancashire United: The fleet 1900-1981: Buses, trolleybuses, trams, Lancashire United, South Lancs, Bangor Blue. Manchester: Greater Manchester Transport Society, Museum of Transport.

[2] Vickie Scullard. (2019). Manchester Corporation Tramways gallery.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/nostalgia/gallery/manchester-corporation-tramways-gallery-15670119

[3] Bounds, A., & Wild, J. (2013). Manchester tram system comes of age after 21 years. FT.com.

[4] Museum of Transport Greater Manchester archive. (1992)

https://www.flickr.com/photos/gmts/16678953170

[5] Department of Transport (2022) Light rail and tram statistics, England: Year Ending March 2022, GOV.UK.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/light-rail-and-tram-statistics-england-year-ending-march-2022/light-rail-and-tram-statistics-england-year-ending-march-2022

[6] Adrian, S. (2010) Procurement of hydro-electricity for Metrolink – the greater manchester light rapid transit system., Energy Planning Knowledge Base RSS.

[7] Richard, B. and Martin, D. (2013) INFRA_MANC: Post-war infrastructures of Manchester, Issuu.

[8] Robbins, M. (2000). The Early Years of Electric Traction: Invention, Development, Exploitation. Journal of Transport History, 21(1), 92–101.

https://doi.org/10.7227/TJTH.21.1.6

[9] Schmucki, B. (2012). The Machine in the City: Public Appropriation of the Tramway in Britain and Germany, 1870–1915. Journal of Urban History, 38(6), 1060–1093. https://doi.org/10.1177/0096144211435121

[10] Knowles, R.D. (1996) “Transport impacts of Greater Manchester's Metrolink light rail system,” Journal of Transport Geography, 4(1), pp. 1–14. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/0966-6923(95)00034-8.

[11] Ogden, E. and Senior, J.A. (1991) Metrolink: Official Handbook. Glossop: Transport Publishing.

[12] Nimda (2015) Case studies: Metrolink light rail transport, Case Studies: Metrolink Light Rail Transport, Manchester, United Kingdom - BENEFIT Wiki.

http://www.benefit4transport.eu/wiki/index.php?title=Case_Studies%3A_Metrolink_Light_Rail_Transport%2C_Manchester%2C_United_Kingdom

[13] GOV.UK (2022) Passenger journeys on light rail and trams and undergrounds by system: Great Britain - annual from 1983/84