# Poker/Bluffing

Bluffing is a seriously overrated concept in poker. Yes, it is important, and yes every good player is a good bluffer. But it is not the be-all and end-all of the game. Certain types of players will make frequent bluffs - perhaps every 4 or 5 hands they play. This is a high variance way of playing, and only the truly great players are significant winners in this manner.

The mathematics of bluffing dictate this. For example, let's say that the pot is currently $10. I have nothing at all, and you have a moderate hand, a top pair ace kicker. I bet$5 as a total bluff. Whether this is profitable or not depends on the chance that you will fold.

I am betting $5 to win$10. I must therefore succeed one time from three to make this a positive expectation move (see expected value). If you fold 30% of the time, it is a losing move from me. If I bet $10 into the$10 pot, you must fold 50% of the time - folding 45% of the time loses me money in the long run.

## Optimal bluffing frequency

The reason for bluffing can be explained using a branch of mathematics called game theory, which also gives an insight into the optimal frequency for bluffing (though it's usually only possible to work out the math in simplified situations).

Suppose you are playing 5-card draw poker against a single opponent. There is $10 in the pot from antes, and after the draw you have the opportunity to bet another$10 (no raises or other bet sizes are possible, to keep this simple). Your opponent gets:

You bluff You don't bluff ${\displaystyle 20\times {1 \over 12}-10\times {11 \over 12}\approx -\7.50}$ ${\displaystyle 20\times {1 \over 12}\approx \1.67}$ ${\displaystyle \10}$ ${\displaystyle 10\times {1 \over 12}\approx \0.83}$