Poker/Bluffing
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Bluffing is a seriously overrated concept in poker. Yes, it is important, and yes every good player is a good bluffer. But it is not the be-all and end-all of the game. Certain types of players will make frequent bluffs - perhaps every 4 or 5 hands they play. This is a high variance way of playing, and only the truly great players are significant winners in this manner.
The mathematics of bluffing dictate this. For example, let's say that the pot is currently $10. I have nothing at all, and you have a moderate hand, ctop pair ace kicker. I bet $5 as a total bluff. Whether this is profitable or not depends on the chance that you will fold.
I am betting $5 to win $10. I must therefore succeed one time from three to make this a positive expectation move (see expected value). If you fold 30% of the time, it is a losing move from me. If I bet $10 into the $10 pot, you must fold 50% of the time - folding 45% of the time loses me money in the long run.
Semi-Bluffing is a less well understood but vital concept. A semi-bluff is when you bet a draw to the hand that will win the pot, but you do not have anything yet. For example, you have four cards to a flush on the flop in Holdem and you make a bet. You have around a 20% chance to hit your flush on the next card, but you now also have a chance to make your opponent fold.
In the above example, I am again betting $5 into a $10 pot. You again have top pair with an ace kicker, and I have the nuts (best) flush draw. Here however, I do not need you to fold 33% of the time. Even assuming you fold should I hit my flush (rather than pay me more money - implied odds), I now only need you to fold around 25% of the time for my move to be +ve, and thus profitable in the long run.
Bluffing most often now happens in two distinct ways — the BIG bluff, and the small bluff. A ontinuation bet where you have missed the flop completely is a small bluff.
Aggressive players will semi bluff a lot more than they make straight out bluffs. The fact that once you hit you may still get more money from your opponent is a large part of this, and makes the semi bluff a powerful move in any player's arsenal.
Poker Bluffing Resources
