Climate Change/Effects
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[edit] Predicted outcomes
- Global mean surface temperature rises
- Global mean sea surface temperature rises
- Surface temperature over land increases more than over ocean
- Global mean precipitation increases, with a larger increase over the ocean.
- Sea-ice concentration decreases, melt season comes earlier, freezing starts later
- Regional temperature and salinity changes
- Sea level rises, mostly due to thermal expansion of ocean water
- More frequent and severe floods and droughts
[edit] Possible effects on humans
- Increased incidences of respiratory infections, malaria, and other diseases.
- Changing growing seasons lead to bad harvests and widespread food shortages
- Increased droughts cause regional water shortages
- Sea levels rise more than expected (>1m), displacing millions of people
- More frequent flooding leads to coastal destruction in developing nations, increasing the spread of diseases locally.
[edit] Worst-case scenario outcomes
- Release of methane clathrate from ocean bottom releases enormous amounts of methane to atmosphere, leading to runaway greenhouse effect
- Thawing tundra releases methane trapped in permanently frozen organic matter, leading to enhanced warming
- Increases in precipitation over Greenland, combined with other warming effects there, leads to pools of liquid water that melt into the ice sheet as moulins. Liquid water gets deep into the ice sheet, lubricating and destabilizing it, and huge discharges of ice spill into the north Atlantic.
- Huge discharges of ice spill into the north Atlantic, chilling and freshening the surface water, stabilizing the upper ocean. This shuts down deep convection, and we experience a rapid climate change (not quite so fast as The Day After Tomorrow).